The Western Ukrainian city of Lvov, which is the cradle of contemporary Ukrainian nationalism, was the scene of a spontaneous riot after several hundred people clashed with members of the “Territorial Recruitment Center” (TCC) who press-ganged a local man. Some of the participants were later forced to apologize on camera after suspected extrajudicial measures were applied against them. Nevertheless, the damage is done, and even Ukrainian media like the “Kyiv Independent” recognizes this political fact.
They published a surprisingly candid piece about “How a street check in Lviv became a warning sign for Ukraine’s mobilization system”. According to Chairman of the Ukrainian Security Club Yuri Goncharenko, “the confrontation may signal that Ukraine’s long-running mobilization crisis is beginning to shift from a political and social problem into a security threat.” The unstated reason is that even locals in the Ukrainian nationalist heartland know that conscription is now equivalent to a death sentence for most.
While they still wish that their country could restore its pre-2014 borders, many aren’t willing to die in pursuit of that goal, especially since it’s unrealistic to achieve with modern-day drone warfare. The “kill zone” that’s been established along the front makes most infantry rushes suicidal and Russia’s targeted strikes against Ukrainian positions endanger conscripts far from the frontlines. The TCC has to resort to press-ganging precisely because so many men are dodging conscription for this reason.
This isn’t “anti-Ukrainian” propaganda like that country’s supporters might instinctively retort since Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov shockingly revealed in January that 200,000 men have already deserted so far and ten times more (2 million) are actively dodging the draft. For as active as the TCC has been, Ukraine still struggles to replenish its lost forces, ergo why Kiev requested that the European Commission no longer provide refugee rights to military-aged men who flee to the bloc.
All of this poses a serious problem for Zelensky, who could end the conflict by agreeing to comply with the “Spirit of Anchorage”, which reportedly concerned him withdrawing from Donbass in exchange for Putin declaring a full ceasefire. Trump refused to coerce Zelensky into doing so, thus perpetuating the conflict to the present day since Putin won’t stop till Russia at least controls that region in its entirety. While the costs for Russia risk piling up, so to are they piling up for Ukraine, especially politically.
As proven by Lvov’s spontaneous anti-conscription riot, even Ukrainian nationalists are now souring on the conflict regardless of whatever some of their representatives might claim. After all, if they still believed that their goal of restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is achievable, they wouldn’t have attacked the TCC. Zelensky, his Chief of Staff Kirill Budanov, and the Defense Ministry, as cited by the “Kyiv Independent”, harshly condemned the riot because they know that it could presage a crisis.
To be clear, the secret police might manage to keep everything under relative control, so nobody should expect a full-fledged nationalist revolt against Zelensky. Ukrainian nationalists are also still adamantly opposed to the scenario of ceding Donbass to Russia, but the problem is that they themselves don’t want to fight to retain it, thus exposing their hypocrisy. So long as the conflict continues, the political costs will continue piling up for Zelensky, and they might one day spiral out of control.
