Polish Deputy Defense Minister Paweł Zalewski sparked a national scandal after ruling out the possibility of Poland hosting other countries’ nuclear weapons as part of its participation in NATO’s nuclear sharing program. This realistically only concerns American and French nukes. He made his comments after meeting with Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby, who’s considered to be Trump 2.0’s military-strategic mastermind (though he’s not always listened to), at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
Former Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak, who now serves as the conservative opposition’s parliamentary leader, condemned Zalewski for functionally renouncing Poland’s participation in in the nuclear sharing program. He argued that it’s not possible without at least temporarily hosting nukes. His successor Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz then declared that “Poland remains steadfastly interested” in the program, but his statement didn’t address Błaszczak’s point, which is a valid one.
Zalewski’s several responses to Polish expert at the Sobieski Institute Sebastian Meitz’s questions, the first of which described Zalewski’s newly announced policy as being in the interests of Moscow and libertarian-nationalist opposition leader Grzegorz Braun, didn’t clarify matters either. To be sure, Russia veritably opposes the possibility of Poland hosting any countries’ nukes, but this doesn’t mean that Zalewski nor the ruling liberal coalition that he represents are operating under its influence.
Rather, this move appears to be aimed at maintaining the premier role of neighboring Germany in this program, which already hosts US nukes. Prime Minister Donald Tusk is considered to be so close to Germany that the conservative opposition’s grey cardinal once accused him of being a “German agent”. It was also assessed earlier this year after he questioned the US’ commitment to Article 5 that “Tusk Is Hellbent On Shifting Poland From The American Camp To The Franco-German One”.
Be that as it may, Zalewski defended his policy announcement in one of his responses to Meitz on the grounds of avoiding “the risk [that’s] borne by the country on whose territory [nukes are] stored”, which is reasonable but might still be a cover Tusk’s deference to Germany in this regard. Readers should also remember that Lithuania, where Germany recently opened its first foreign base, wants to host US nukes. Finland just amended its legislation to open up the same possibility but might host French ones instead.
If any of them end up hosting other countries’ nukes, let alone both of them doing so no matter whose they host, then Poland would no longer stand any chance of leading the Intermarium. This refers to the modern-day revival of interwar Poland’s vision of an anti-Soviet regional bloc. Even the permanent stationing of US troops in Poland, which Zalewski disclosed that he also discussed with Colby, wouldn’t change that in this scenario. Germany would still have the edge over Poland in Central & Eastern Europe.
Therein lies the crux of this scandal, namely whether Poland will cede its regional influence to Germany or continue competing with it to become the US’ top partner in NATO 3.0, which boils down to whether a German-dominated militarized EU or a Polish-led Intermarium will contain Russia along this front. The Defense Minister’s declaration suggests that maybe Zalewski mixed something up, but it’s still unclear, so Zalewski’s statement should be understood as the ruling liberal coalition’s policy pending clarification.
