Getachew Reda and Redwan Hussein co-authored a powerful article at Al Jazeera about why “Ethiopia must not be dragged back into war”. They signed the 2022 Pretoria Agreement on behalf of the rebellious Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government. Getachew is also the former president of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray, who now serves as Minister Advisor for East African Affairs in Ethiopia’s federal government, while Redwan is Ethiopia’s spy chief.
Their credentials are incredibly relevant due to the optics of them coming back together to warn against another Northern War. The first half of their article reminded readers about the former conflict, the sometimes tense negotiations to end it, and how joyous most Ethiopians were when it was over. The notable exceptions were the TPLF hardliners and the Amhara Fano militia, which respectively wanted to exploit the lull in fighting to prepare for another one and thought that the deal was too soft on the TPLF.
The authors assessed that “Equally, if not more consequential in its opposition to the Pretoria Agreement, was the Government of Eritrea”, specifically President Isaias Afwerki. They then elaborated on his exploitation of Ethiopia’s internal differences to divide-and-rule what he considers to be his eternal enemy. Recently, his spies brokered an alliance between TPLF hardliners, Fano, and other foes of the Pretoria Agreement dubbed Tsimdo, and they warned that this could spark another Northern War.
These two enemies-turned-allies then declared that “It is imperative that everyone with any leverage or influence over the TPLF and its patrons in Asmara exert maximum pressure on them to avoid a relapse into conflict.” Ethiopian Foreign Minister Dr. Gedion Timothewos warned about this threat last fall and called for the same back then but to no avail. Recent developments, like externally exacerbated Sudanese-Ethiopian tensions and a de facto coup in Tigray, show that time is of the essence now.
It was recently argued that “The US’ Reportedly Planned Rapprochement With Eritrea Could Also Benefit Ethiopia” if Trump 2.0 takes a page from its Armenian-Azeri peace deal to propose a similar US-controlled regional transport corridor between Ethiopia and Eritrea as part of their own peace deal. Nothing has happened thus far, likely due to his team prioritizing the Iranian talks, but the US could still use its long-standing influence over the TPLF and new relative influence over Eritrea to avert war.
Those two’s chief Egyptian patron, which is Ethiopia’s historical rival, isn’t going to do so on its own. In fact, it might even cynically want a major regional war in a bid to “Balkanize” Ethiopia. The proverbial head of the snake therefore isn’t in Asmara, but in Cairo, and it’s partly subordinate to Washington. Trump 2.0 would therefore do well to engage all three antagonists – the Egyptian mastermind, its regional Eritrean proxy, and those two’s local hardline TPLF foot soldiers – if it truly desires peace.
Ethiopia can’t allow post-coup Tigray to become a de facto extension of Egyptian-backed Eritrea since it would then achieve the strategic depth required for more formidably weaponizing the neighboring Amhara Fano militia in order to then spark a foreign-backed Hybrid War under the guise of a civil war. The conflict could then spread to embroil Eritrea, Sudan, and even Somalia, thus turning into an all-out regional war with unthinkable humanitarian consequences. It’s incumbent on Trump 2.0 to act now.
