Zelensky published a highly incendiary open letter to Putin last week requesting a bilateral meeting for ending the Ukrainian Conflict by freezing the frontlines with no Ukrainian concessions whatsoever at all. Putin rejected this request with good reason, but not before clarifying that it was already discreetly conveyed to him by a member of Russia’s business community who was earlier invited to Kiev, where Zelensky asked him to pass along his proposal. Zelensky later confirmed that it was Roman Abramovich.
Putin then explained to his audience at the plenary session of the latest St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) that, “The sole objective, from the Ukrainian perspective, is to impede the progress of our Armed Forces, nothing more. We require agreements that endure not for mere months, not for half a year, but for a significant historical period.” Only once everything is agreed to, he said, would he then consider meeting with Zelensky to sign the resultant peace deal.
Putin also referenced the Starobelsk dormitory bombing, which is believed to have been carried out by Ukraine (deliberately according to Russia or due to faulty intelligence as others claim), telling the businessman who Zelensky confirmed to be Abramovich, “What does this signify? They ask for a meeting whilst perpetrating such horrendous crimes as the murder of children. What is the implication of this?” He then concluded that Zelensky’s rude letter was meant to make such a meeting impossible in any case.
The day before, Putin held a meeting with the heads of international news agencies in which he confirmed that, at the Anchorage Summit, “certain questions were put before Russia so that we could agree on certain compromises. Russia agrees to the compromises discussed in Anchorage. It is necessary that Ukraine also agrees to make them. Then, the conflict will be resolved naturally and quickly.” An RT contributor earlier described the deal as Russia ceasing hostilities if Ukraine withdraws from Donbass.
Although the special operation didn’t initially have any territorial goals, they became part of its officially envisaged endgame after September 2022’s referenda led to four new regions joining Russia, including the two that comprise Donbass (the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics). That pair are the most emotive of the four due to being where the Ukrainian Civil War began right after “EuroMaidan” so it stands to reason that their full incorporation into Russia is the bare minimum that Putin must achieve.
This goal is more relatable to the masses than reforming the European security architecture, while Ukraine’s full denazification appears further away than ever after Zelensky recently doubled down on it by glorifying the Volhynia Genocide’s culprits at the state level. Accordingly, the special operation is expected to continue till at least all of Donbass is under Russia’s control, which likely entails going it alone without Chinese support and possibly “escalating to de-escalate” as forecast here and here.
All in all, Putin did indeed reject Zelensky’s request for a bilateral meeting with good reason, which will likely prolong the conflict for an indeterminate length of time if Trump doesn’t coerce Zelensky into withdrawing from Donbass or the frontlines don’t collapse first. Former top Russian spy Andrey Bezrukov shared his assessment at SPIEF that Russia is in a “new war” that might last a few decades, but he also shared some proposals for what Russia should thus do, which function as an action plan in this event.
