Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said during a press conference with his visiting Somali counterpart Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) that “Egypt will not allow anyone to threaten Somalia or affect its security. Do not try Egypt, or try to threaten its brothers especially if they ask it to intervene.” He then added that ““My message to Ethiopia is that … trying to seize a piece of land to control it is something no one will agree to.”
His remarks represent the most muscular support from any member of the international community thus far for Somalia’s claims over Somaliland, which redeclared its independence in 1991 after a failed three-decade-long unity project with Somalia. For those who aren’t aware, the former British colony of Somaliland received independence just before the former UN trust territory of Somalia did, but its redeclaration of this status hasn’t yet been officially recognized by anyone other than Ethiopia.
That country promised to do so as part of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that their leaders signed on 1 January in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa alongside granting Somaliland stakes in at least one national company as a quid pro quo for military-commercial rights to one of its ports. Those who haven’t followed this issue all that closely should refer to the following analyses to be brought up to speed since the background is admittedly complex and involves a lot of strategic dimensions:
* “Ethiopia’s Port Deal With Somaliland Is A Diplomatic Masterstroke”
* “Somalia Should Negotiate A ‘Dignified Divorce’ With Somaliland As Soon As Possible”
* “The Somali Authorities & Al-Shabaab Are On The Same Side Against Ethiopia’s Somaliland Port Deal”
* “Forthcoming Arms Shipments To Somalia Should Be Conditional On Strict End-User Agreements”
* “The Ethiopian-Somaliland MoU Heralds A New Future For The Horn”
* “The Somali Leader Is Looking For Allies As He Plots Hybrid War Against Ethiopia & Somaliland”
* “Korybko To The Epoch Times: The Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU Is Legitimate & Pragmatic”
* “Korybko To Addis Standard: Somalia Has Nobody To Blame But Itself For The Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU”
Somalia regards the abovementioned MoU as a violation of its sovereignty and pledged to reconquer Somaliland in response, shortly after which HSM set off for Eritrea, whose ties with Ethiopia noticeably chilled after November 2022’s Cessation Of Hostilities Agreement with the TPLF as explained here. Eritrean intelligence had also leveraged their agents of influence in social media to falsely fearmonger over the past year about Ethiopia’s allegedly annexationist intentions against its neighbors.
It remains unclear whether his trip resulted in any clandestine promises of Eritrean support for Somalia’s revanchist plans, but even if it did, there’s only so much that Asmara can do on its own due to financial and logistical constraints. The earlier enumerated analysis about the Somali leader’s Hybrid War plot
foresaw that he’d ultimately require Egyptian support to have any chance at even attempting this, ergo the predictable purpose behind his visit to Cairo.
Sisi’s saber-rattling against Ethiopia suggests that he’s willing to commence some sort of conventional intervention in Somalia’s support, which could be complemented by an unconventional Eritrean one given its expertise in Hybrid Warfare and prior ties with Al Shabaab that got it sanctioned by the UNSC. Egypt has been leading regional efforts to contain Ethiopia for decades due to its paranoid fear of the latter’s rise as a multipolar African Great Power so the aforesaid assessment aligns with precedent.
While one can only speculate what form Egypt’s ominously implied conventional intervention could take, such as whether it would involve the dispatch of troops or follow NATO’s proxy war model in Ukraine, there’s no doubt that this drama distracts from Gaza. The latest Israeli-Hamas war has turned into a bloodbath for the Palestinians there after over 1% of the population was killed in just four months and the whole area will be uninhabitable for decades after being bombed with the equivalent of two nukes.
It was observed in early November that “Egypt Is Playing An Extremely High-Stakes Game In Gaza That Could End In Genocide” due to its reluctance to open the border. Cairo claimed that it doesn’t want to facilitate Israel’s ethnic cleansing, but this supposedly principled stance arguably masks its fear that Gaza’s two million refugees could function as so-called “Weapons of Mass Migration”. This concept was created by Ivy League scholar Kelly M. Greenhill over a decade ago and explained by her here.
In this context, Egypt is worried that the influx of two million Palestinians could disrupt the country’s already very fragile socio-economic balance, not to mention the possibility of Hamas “sleeper cell” agents infiltrating into the country under that cover and attempting to revive the Muslim Brotherhood. For as plausible as these concerns are, they’re nevertheless very unpopular among the Arab World (of which Egypt is the most populous state by far), and many believe that they actually facilitate genocide.
Egypt’s refusal to open the border with Gaza directly contributed to the disastrous death toll there since refugees were unable to flee to safety in the nearest country per their rights under international law. Sisi’s personal reputation and that of Egypt as a state therefore took a powerful blow since the latest war began, one which he’s all too eager to distract the public’s attention from, hence his unprecedented saber-rattling against Ethiopia.
The same country that had once been the leader of the Arab World now cares more about helping faraway Somalia wage Hybrid War against Ethiopia over a region that Mogadishu lost 33 years ago than alleviating the suffering of its Palestinian co-ethnics who live right next to it. Israel is currently doing to Gaza exactly what Egypt falsely claimed that Ethiopia is plotting to do to Somalia, yet Sisi is turning a blind eye to the former and hopes to distract the world from this by saber-rattling against the latter.
