Former Afghan spy chief Masoud Andarabi gave an intriguing interview to The Diplomat in mid-July that spent a lot of time covering his country’s geostrategy. He’s no longer based there for obvious reasons since he represented the US-backed government, but it’s still worthwhile knowing what he had to say. The present piece will review the geostrategic parts of his interview before analyzing them. To begin, he assesses that the Taliban remains strong enough to govern, but they lack genuine popular support.
According to Andarabi, Russia recognized the Taliban in order to fill the gap left by the US, to assist with anti-terrorist operations against ISIS-K and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in defense of its own national security, and also to defend its Central Asian partners from those terrorist groups and others. It’s not a military alliance despite their recent military-technical deal, he emphasizes, and “It will likely focus on intelligence cooperation. It will focus on security, energy, trade, and regional diplomacy.”
As for the Chinese aspect of Afghanistan’s contemporary geostrategy, Andarabi assesses that “Where the Russians pursue political influence, China is building long-term structural influence, and that is very important. It invests in mining and infrastructure, telecommunication and regional connectivity.” He added that “China understands that whoever shapes information, whoever shapes communication and digital infrastructure, shapes the long-term influence.” This is a salient point worth pondering.
The interview then shifted towards Pakistan. Andarabi’s opinion is that “the core of the Taliban and Pakistan’s current issues is India”. He elaborated that “India is supporting the Taliban so that through them they will be able to influence the TTP and fight against the Pakistanis. The main reason that the Taliban’s relationship with Pakistan has deteriorated…(is because) the Taliban are providing territorial space and allowing India to be able to openly use Afghanistan against Pakistan”
Intriguingly, despite Andarabi’s former spy institution considering Pakistan to be their adversary due to its patronage of their Taliban enemies, he’s repeating their same talking points about India. Whether he truly came around to believing them on his own or if he’s somehow influenced by his former Pakistani intelligence counterparts is unknown, but it’s nonetheless an interesting observation. In general, it can be concluded that he has solid geostrategic insight into Afghanistan, but the Indian aspect is debatable.
Even so, he’s right that Pakistani perceptions of Indian influence in Afghanistan, particularly with respect to the Taliban’s TTP partners, played a role in sparking the latest cross-border conflict. He’s also right about how China’s and Russia’s approaches are complementary and that Russia’s is driven by security interests that aim to defend its Central Asian partners too. Any interplay between Russia’s, India’s, and China’s approaches, which represent the RIC core of BRICS, would be fascinating to watch unfold.
All in all, Andarabi did a decent job summarizing his country’s contemporary geostrategic despite no longer living there for obvious reasons, so readers who’d like to learn more about his views should read his entire interview. He also devoted a bit more time going into detail about China’s approach and the Taliban’s struggle for international legitimacy beyond the close ties that it now has with RIC. The subtext, however, is that the Taliban rule – for as much as he personally despises it – is here to stay.
