Trump’s decision to “escalate to de-escalate” with Russia through a “war of attrition” led to Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov downplaying the “Spirit of Anchorage” that they expected would result in him coercing Zelensky into withdrawing from Donbass in exchange for a full ceasefire. Ukraine has also begun to carry out a spree of US-assisted strikes against Russia as part of Zelensky’s 40-day influence operation to force it into freezing the conflict. Russian-US ties are therefore under considerable strain.
That’s why it was so surprising that Putin and Lavrov sent such pleasant greetings on the US’ 250th Independence Day. Quite clearly, they want to signal to Trump and the American people that neither they nor the Russian people are a threat to them. To the contrary, both mentioned in their messages that Russia supported the US in the Revolutionary War and Civil War while fighting on the same side as it in the two World Wars, after which they jointly shaped the world order that followed through the UN.
Putin and Lavrov each expressed cautious optimism that their countries can maintain international security and stability through the resumption of proper dialogue. Putin in particular pointed to their special responsibility to do so as the world’s two largest nuclear powers. This was a subtle reminder of the apocalyptic stakes in the event that their recently renewed tensions spiral out of control. Putin is extremely risk-averse as explained here and here, however, so that wouldn’t happen due to him.
The prerogative to dangerously escalate tensions with the aforesaid stakes in mind or responsibly de-escalate them for the benefit of world peace therefore lies entirely with Trump, which partially explains why Putin and Lavrov were so pleasant in their greetings on the US’ 250th Independence Day. They could have just sent perfunctory statements, or even none at all, but conspicuously went out of their way for the greater good to be friendly in spite of the considerable strain that Russian-US ties are suffering.
It’s precisely because Trump initiated this newly difficult period in their relations by reneging on the “Spirit of Anchorage” that he’s the only one who can reverse this trend. Russia won’t concede on any of the core issues connected to its security and sovereignty such as allowing rump Ukraine to remain NATO’s forward operating base or selling controlling stakes in its state-owned natural resource companies. Putin likely reminded Trump of this during their nearly 90-minute call on Independence Day.
Words alone won’t get Trump to change course, but they’re known to have an effect on him depending on who they come from and the overall context, which is why Russia’s continued resilience in the face of Ukraine’s spree of US-backed strikes and continued on-the-ground gains are key. If Trump sees that his new “war of attrition” isn’t unfolding as planned, then he might opt to reach a fairer deal with Russia just like he did with Iran after the Third Gulf War didn’t unfold as planned either.
As was recently suggested here, “it would thus be best if Putin hardens his heart, changes his views about Ukrainians, and does what’s needed” to win the Ukrainian Conflict on as many of Russia’s terms as possible before the sacrifices caused by the US’ “war of attrition” pile up. If Russia’s recent large-scale strikes against military targets in Kiev are any indication, then Putin might be “escalating to de-escalate” with Ukraine through “systematic strikes” as previously warned, which could be a game-changer.
