Russia’s Africa Corps played an indispensable role in helping Mali thwart last weekend’s terrorist coup attempt that killed its Defense Minister, injured its intelligence chief, and saw Tuareg rebels retake their traditional stronghold of Kidal. The crisis is ongoing, however, and it’s unclear how it’ll end. Readers can learn more about it here and here. The present piece enumerates the five goals that this latest Western-backed insurgency by Tuareg rebels and Islamic terrorists aims to achieve:
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1. Replicate The Syrian Scenario Or At Least Related Optics
The main goal was to replicate the Syrian scenario of swiftly seizing power, but having failed to do so due to Russia’s Africa Corps, the West resorted to its backup plan of replicating the optics thereof by claiming that “Russia can’t defend its allies” and “Russia is in retreat”. This is meant to demoralize Russians and their global supporters while boosting their foes’ morale. For as compelling as this narrative may seem to many, it dishonestly exaggerates Russia’s role in Mali, which is incomparable to its former Syrian one.
2. Facilitate Another Military Coup By Taking Out Key Figures
The assassination of the Malian Defense Minister and the injuring of its intelligence chief dealt powerful blows to the interim military government, not least because they’re considered to play important roles in Malian-Russian security cooperation. Their removal from the scene could also facilitate another military coup attempt by weakening President Assimi Goita’s authority. That would be the second-most ideal scenario from the West’s perspective since it would quickly wrap up this Hybrid War.
3. Inflict Russian Casualties & Prompt Quagmire Fears
Cynically speaking, the silver lining of a possibly protracted conflict is the greater chance of inflicting more Russian casualties that could prompt (foreign-encouraged) quagmire fears among the public, thus potentially influencing September’s Duma elections. Support for the ruling party is reportedly declining due to the continued special operation and new mobile internet cutoffs in some places for anti-drone purposes. More Russian casualties and related quagmire fears could exacerbate this alleged trend.
4. Divide-And-Rule The Alliance Of Sahelian States (AES)
Whether the planned regime change soon succeeds, a protracted conflict follows, or the insurgency is quickly defeated, the demonstration effect of this weekend’s nationwide offensive could convince the AES’ Burkinabe and Nigerien members to cut a deal with the West to save them from the same fate. It’s very possible that Islamic terrorists in both countries and long-established Tuareg rebels in Niger are preparing something similar against them too if they reject potential Western offers like Mali did.
5. Geopolitically Re-Engineer The Region
However long it takes and through whichever means are employed, the West wants to geopolitically re-engineer the region by dismantling or politically neutralizing the AES. Beyond that, their other goals can only be speculated, but they might potentially involve legitimizing a Syrian-inspired radical Islamic state, creating a transnational autonomous Tuareg state between Mali and Niger (despite risking an Algerian intervention), returning those two and Burkina Faso to ECOWAS, and restoring their alliance with France.
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What these five goals demonstrate is that the West’s sponsorship of the latest Malian insurgency is driven by its desire to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia in West Africa, the court of global opinion, and even on the domestic political homefront regarding the blow that it hopes to deal to United Russia. If it wasn’t for the Africa Corps’ valiant defense of their positions throughout the country, Mali probably would have already fallen, but it now has a fighting chance to survive and foil this Western power play.
