Pakistani Ambassador to Russia Faisal Niaz Tirmizi gave a detailed interview to TASS, which followed earlier ones with Izvestia and RT just last month, in which he described the future course of relations with Russia among other topics like Iran and India. The present piece will only review and analyze what he said about Russia, however, since it’ll frame Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s planned trip later this summer that was originally scheduled for early spring but was postponed due to the Third Gulf War.
Tirmizi envisages Pakistan and Russia cooperating across the broad swath of Eurasia between them connecting the Arabian Sea with the Arctic Ocean. In his words, “This could mean connecting the Eurasian space through roads, railways, pipelines, humanitarian contacts, and academic ties.” To that end, Pakistan has begun talks on a free trade agreement with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union and aspires to join BRICS, the second of which he said that Russia supports despite India opposing it.
A visa facilitation agreement is also planned stimulate trade. More tangibly, Tirmizi confirmed that Pakistan is still interested in proceeding with the North-South Gas Pipeline (“Pakistan Stream”) megaproject with Russia as well as importing more oil and gas from it. He also said that “we are now also considering building a pipeline from Central Asia and Russia at some point…If Afghanistan stabilizes, road, rail, and other links will be established between Russia, Central Asia, Pakistan—and even India.”
Tirmizi couldn’t resist taking swipes at India throughout the interview, however, the most relevant of which to bilateral ties with Russia concerns his follow-up claim that “Afghanistan, unfortunately, is acting on the orders of India, which is a regional power, as well as some extra-regional forces that do not want stability in Pakistan, China, Tajikistan and even Russia.” The innuendo, which echoes what he claimed in his earlier-cited interview with Izvestia, is that India’s alleged policy in Afghanistan threatens Russia.
Moving beyond that highly partisan segment of his interview and reflecting on the gist of what he shared about ties with Russia, it compellingly looks like his government is implementing the guidance that was shared over half a decade ago here regarding “Pakistan’s Role in Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership”. Economic diplomacy, with a focus on comprehensive connectivity across Afghanistan, is clearly driving Pakistan’s proactive engagement with Russia in recent years in accordance with the aforesaid vision.
Be that as it may, it’s important for Pakistan to remember that India remains Russia’s special and privileged strategic partner per the official description of those two’s relations. This is relevant to mention because Russian officials aren’t expected to respond well to Tirmizi’s innuendo that India’s alleged policy in Afghanistan threatens Russia. Russians are also very fond of India too, so such claims won’t be received well by them either. It’s therefore suggested to eschew public attacks against India.
That constructive critique aside, the importance of which shouldn’t be downplayed, Tirmizi’s interview did an excellent job encapsulating the future course of Russian-Pakistani ties. He clearly conveyed which connectivity projects his country has in mind for robustly expanding their trade. As was assessed earlier this year, however, “A Lasting Political Solution To The Afghan-Pakistani War Is Extremely Unlikely”. That would limit the scope of Russian-Pakistani trade, but in any case, the future of their ties is still promising.
