Putin spoke about Russian-Japanese relations during his mid-August meeting with Pacific Fleet commanders. He lamented their deterioration in recent years, which was completely unprovoked from his country’s side, so much so that now “is the first time that Japan has ranked Russia among the main threat sources in its latest military doctrines.” He then briefly reviewed the dispute concerning the Kuril Islands and lamented Japan’s policy pivot from trade and dialogue to sanctions and confrontation.
Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Viktor Liina assessed that Japan is part of the new political and military alliances in the region that he considers to constitute elements of NATO. These are the Trilateral Pact with South Korea and the US; JAPHUS with the Philippines and the US; the Quad with Australia, India, and the US; and AJUS with Australia and the US. Liina added that “They are conducting joint operational and combat training exercises, and both their frequency and scale are consistently increasing.”
He then drew attention to the leading role that Japan plays within these destabilizing processes in Northeast Asia due to its accelerated remilitarization and the proposed abolishment of its Three Non-Nuclear Principles that could lead to Japan possessing, producing, and/or hosting nuclear weapons. These developments further contextualize why “A Top Russian Diplomat Touched Upon The Growing Threat That Japan Poses To His Country” in late July.
They also confirm what was recently assessed about how “The US Is Implementing The NATO 3.0 Concept In Asia Through AUKUS+” after Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby’s landmark speech in early August during the first leg of his Southeast Asian tour. While Liina’s description of the Quad as an element of NATO is debatable since India remains proudly sovereign and is still a stalwart Russian partner, the rest of what he said on the subject aligns with the aforesaid.
The significance of Putin lamenting the worsening of Russian-Japanese relations in his meeting with Pacific Fleet commanders and the Pacific Fleet Commander’s evaluation of the growing threat that Japan poses to their country is that Russia understands Northeast Asia’s evolving security dynamics. As was mentioned here earlier in the summer, a “cordon sanitaire” has begun to take shape around Russia over the past year as a result of Trump 2.0’s Neo-Reagan Doctrine rolling back Russian influence worldwide.
Japan is tasked with leading the Northeast Asian front, which will likely manifest through its regular hosting of US missiles, provocations at sea (and increasingly frequent ones at that), and possible nuclearization together with its accelerated remilitarization. Russia is accordingly preparing for this as suggested by what was discussed between Putin and his Pacific Fleet commanders, in response to which the regional fleet will likely grow and cooperation with China and North Korea will likely strengthen.
Readers should remember that Russia never threatened Japan and that it was Japan which decided to begin threatening Russia in solidarity with the US through the means that were described. This policy also undermines Japan’s objective economic interests by preemptively excluding the resource-starved island nation of access to Russia’s nearby energy and mineral resources (with the exception of the sanctions-waived Sakhalin-2 megaproject). That’s an incentive to reconsider its anti-Russian approach.
