Lithuania’s publicly financed LRT recently reported that “Russian propaganda targeted Lithuania’s bid to abandon nuclear weapons ban in July” according to unnamed “military analysts”. In their words, “Russian propagandists sought to intimidate Lithuanian society, claiming that with such decisions the Baltic countries are approaching World War III, and Lithuania could suffer the fate of Ukraine.” They also cited Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s statement that this move would reduce Lithuania’s security.
For starters, as was advised in mid-2024, “Don’t Take Domestic Russian Pundits Seriously” since they sometimes say the most absurd things for reasons that only they can account for. In this case, Lithuania certainly will not “suffer the fate of Ukraine” since ever–cautious Putin isn’t going to start World War III by authorizing a Russian attack against that NATO member, especially since he hasn’t authorized attacks against any of the bloc’s members despite them backing very serious Ukrainian provocations since 2022.
Nevertheless, Lithuania’s hosting of nukes – whether the US’ and/or France’s, the latter of which is expanding its nuclear umbrella eastward after recently placing neighboring Poland under it – would indeed raise the risk of World War III. That’s because it would worsen Russia’s security, thus prompting it to take various defensive measures that could in turn lead to an uncontrollable escalation spiral by miscalculation. Moreover, Lithuania would definitely be in Russia’s crosshairs in a conflict scenario.
None of the above is “propaganda” but an objective assessment of the consequences that the fateful decision of hosting nukes could entail for Lithuania. Raising awareness of them also isn’t “propaganda”. Bonafide propaganda, however, is gaslighting that the aforesaid is propaganda for the purpose of lulling Lithuanians into a false sense of security so as to ensure public approval for such a move. Since LRT is publicly financed, its article can therefore be considered state propaganda against its own people.
To be sure, Lithuania has the sovereign right to promulgate and then implement whatever policies it wants, but actions also have consequences and pretending that they don’t is incredibly dishonest. As regards this particular proposed policy, it’s arguably part of a competition with neighboring Poland, which itself is part of a larger competition between Poland and German–backed Ukraine that was elaborated on here. In brief, these countries are all conspiring to contain Poland.
Poland is vying with German-backed Ukraine for leadership over post-war Central & Eastern Europe as the US’ top partner for containing Russia in this era per the NATO 3.0 concept. Accordingly, “It’s In Poland’s Interests To Host US Nukes Instead Of Lithuania”. Lithuania, which recently defended Zelensky’s state-level glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits and hosts a German base, wants this “honor” for itself instead. Its German and Ukrainian patrons presumably support it over Poland.
With this in mind, Lithuania’s latest state propaganda against its own people is also tacitly against Poland as well since Lithuania’s hosting of US and/or French nukes would undermine Poland’s envisaged role as the US’ top post-war partner for containing Russia by dividing this responsibility between several states. Polish-Lithuanian relations officially remain friendly, but there’s also no denying the existence of a new “friendly competition” between them in which Germany and Ukraine support Lithuania over Poland.
