The Lithuanian Defense Minister recently revealed that his country is in talks with the US about hosting its nukes as part of the nuclear sharing program, which Politico reminded readers follows on the heels of the Financial Times’ report about how “US in talks to expand nuclear capable deployments in Europe”. Poland would stand to lose if the US deploys nukes to Lithuania or any other country east of Germany, where it already has them, since that would undermine its attempted regional leadership.
Poland seeks to revive its long-lost Great Power status by becoming the centerpiece of NATO’s Eastern Flank through its new role in commanding the EU’s largest army as was explained here last year. It was then assessed that “Poland Will Play A Central Role In Advancing The US’ National Security Strategy In Europe” due to the complementarity of these visions. The “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI), which also functions as a military logistics corridor and regional integration platform, plays a huge role in this too.
The “NATO 3.0” concept is premised on the European members of the bloc playing a greater role in the continent’s security, which Poland has an interest in doing on the US’ behalf in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), but liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk seems to prefer ceding this task to France and Germany. He just agreed to place Poland under France’s nuclear umbrella and earlier gave Germany optimized military logistical access across Poland to its first foreign base in Lithuania through the “military Schengen”.
Further undermining Poland’s regional leadership plans is deteriorating trust with Ukraine caused by Zelensky honoring the Volhynia Genocide’s culprits shortly after accepting Germany’s military patronage. If he doesn’t reverse course and replace Germany with Poland as Ukraine’s top strategic partner behind the US, then it’ll be difficult for Poland to revive its long-lost Great Power status, not to mention if the US deploys nukes to Lithuania or any country east of Germany besides Poland.
Trump 2.0 just handed the conservative opposition aligned with independent President Karol Nawrocki a victory by authorizing the deployment of 5,000 more US troops to popular applause despite his tiff with Tusk, however, which showed that his team still appreciates Poland’s envisaged regional role. If Poland is to become CEE’s leader instead of remain subordinated to the Franco-German Entente, then it must ensure that the US deploys some of its nukes there in parallel with opening a permanent base.
To that end, the Polish State or at least the conservative and populist elements therein could take a page from history by reminding the US of their civilization-state’s erstwhile self-identified role as the “antemurale”, or bulwark against the east. By playing to this concept and actively embracing it, Poland might then receive the US nukes (obviously not transferred under its control) and base that it desires, which could then position it to become European NATO’s main force for managing tensions with Russia.
It was touched upon here how Russia might prefer dealing with a Polish-led Eastern Flank as opposed to a German-dominated European NATO after the Ukrainian Conflict ends, with the logic being more compelling after Medvedev warned about the 1941-like threat posed by Germany’s remilitarization. If Poland plays this role, then it could mitigate the strategic threat from worsening ties with Ukraine in the post-conflict European security architecture while bolstering its sovereignty vis-à-vis the German-led EU.
