Indian Minister of External Affairs Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar recently confirmed during an event in Finland that “At the time (prior to Trump’s return), the US specifically asked India to buy Russian oil to stabilise the oil market.” He then elaborated that “At that point of time, much of the oil available in the market was from Russia because Europeans were essentially buying up the Middle East oil, which was our traditional supplier. Circumstances pushed us in a certain direction.”
Jaishankar also criticized the US’ several policy reversals under Trump 2.0, remarking that “Right now, if you see, after having first put tariffs on us for buying Russian oil, the US then again lifted its sanctions… Let’s not pretend there’s some great principle involved here. I don’t think making this about sanctimony is really warranted.” The importance of him reminding everyone about the US’ double-dealing on Russian oil purchases is because India was viciously maligned by the Western media over this for years.
None of this is new as it’s been talked about before, but it takes on a newfound importance due to the global oil crisis brought about by the Third Gulf War that the US and Israel initiated against Iran. It was that conflict which prompted the US to issue a worldwide waiver on the import of Russian oil at sea at the time that this decision was made. This in turn discredited Trump 2.0’s six-month-long punitive tariffs on India over these purchases and also showed that the Third Gulf War wasn’t going as planned.
After all, Trump 2.0 decided to allow India to do exactly what it was earlier doing but without punitive tariffs this time, and this was due to pressure by its partners abroad over the spike in global oil prices caused by the conflict that the US (and Israel) initiated after it lost control of some of the consequences. Several months later, Gulf exports have yet to return to their antebellum level, and the damage that Iran inflicted upon the regional kingdoms’ energy infrastructure won’t be repaired anytime soon.
This has in turn led to industry experts expecting that global oil prices will remain high till sometime next year at the absolute earliest in the best-case scenario, ergo the associated expectation among some that the US will continue rolling over its Russian oil waiver till the Gulf’s energy industry begins recovering. Once that happens, the US might then resume its policy of imposing punitive tariffs on those that retain their level of Russian oil purchases, thus possibly returning India to its crosshairs.
With a view towards averting a repeat of last summer’s pressure campaign, India is actively exploring the import of (newly US-controlled) Venezuelan oil, though this be slow in coming for the reasons explained here. Nevertheless, given the timeframe involved, India could then hypothetically replace some of its Russian oil with Venezuelan at a gradual pace that meets the US’ expectations while not shocking Russia. That would be the optimal approach from the perspective of India’s multi-alignment policy.
Circling back to the lede, reminding everyone of the US’ double-dealing on India’s Russian oil purchases as Jaishankar did can be interpreted not only as an act of national self-respect when criticized for this by the media, but also as a subtle way of paying the US back for pressuring India. The reputational damage that India might inflict on the US through these means isn’t comparable to the economic damage that the US’ tariffs sought to inflict on India but it’s still a “plausibly deniable” form of retaliation.
