Many expected that Iran would go the way of Iraq, Libya, and Syria upon the start of the Third Gulf War, which is why the outcome of this conflict can be described as the upset of the century. Iran didn’t destroy Israel like it’s long threatened to do, nor did it sink any US ships like its media surrogates hyped supporters up to expect, but both – and especially Israel – were left badly battered. Iran survived, albeit weakened of course as explained here, due to the five factors that’ll now be enumerated below:
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1. Enormous Drone & Missile Arsenal
Iranian strategists wisely foresaw years ago that the future of kinetic warfare would be ranged and unmanned. They also understood the importance of building a military-industrial complex that’s as autarkic as possible in the event of a blockade. To that end, they stockpiled whatever foreign raw materials were required for expanding their drone and missile arsenal under those conditions, thus enabling Iran to strike back against its adversaries even after they destroyed its air defense systems.
2. Willingness To Reciprocally Escalate
To Iran’s credit, it didn’t shy away from reciprocally escalating against Israel, the US, or the Gulf States whose airspace and/or facilities (whether airbases, radars, docks, etc.) were used by the latter against it. Iran continued doing so despite its adversaries being nuclear-armed, and in Trump’s case, ominously implying the use such weapons to destroy its millennia-old civilization. By ratcheting up the costs to its adversaries, all while absorbing the even greater costs that they inflicted on it, Iran surprised everyone.
3. Decentralized Mosaic Defense
Iranian strategists also wisely foresaw that its adversaries would likely decapitate their leadership, ergo the need to decentralize the country’s IRGC-led defense in order to maintain drone- and missile-led reciprocal escalations, which they expected would eventually exhaust their more vulnerable adversaries. This approach wasn’t without its risks, since it almost sparked a war with Azerbaijan and thus possibly also NATO member Turkiye, but it was overall extremely successful and far exceeded expectations.
4. Patriotically United Population
Despite occasional political violence (arguably exacerbated from abroad by exploiting preexisting grievances), the overwhelming majority of Iranians patriotically united in defense of their civilization-state. Most people of all political, religious, ethnic, and regional identities understood the existential stakes involved after Israel and the US explicitly discussed them, which is why there were no wartime revolts in order to avoid doing their adversaries’ bidding. They thus patiently endured their suffering.
5. Strategic Diplomatic Patience
And finally, Iran’s negotiators didn’t accept the first deal on offer despite the growing costs to their state partly to prolong the pain that the war inflicted on their adversaries, hoping that this would divide them and thus lead to a more favorable international context in which to cease hostilities. They also calculated that their population would remain united, which was the basis upon which this policy was built and is also why the US’ “maximum pressure” policy failed to result in Iran’s “unconditional surrender”.
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Iran masterfully fused military, strategic, political, and diplomatic factors to survive the Third Gulf War, which is indisputably a victory given how many expected it to follow Iraq, Libya, and Syria’s path. While Iran didn’t destroy Israel, which many of its supporters considered to be the benchmark of success before hostilities erupted and were promised would happen if they did, it still wreaked unprecedented damage on its foe. Israel did the same to Iran, but it still lost since it didn’t achieve any of its goals in full.
