A suicide bomber targeted a train in the Pakistani province of Balochistan, which has been afflicted for years by a terrorist-separatist insurgency led by the “Balochistan Liberation Army” (BLA), killing at least two dozen people and wounding more than 50. This is one of the worst terrorist attacks since last spring’s one against the Jaffar Express, which also occurred in Balochistan. Here are five expectations after this latest terrorist attack in the context of domestic, regional, and international trends:
———-
1. Pakistan Might Resume Cross-Border Operations Against Afghanistan
The undeclared Pakistani-Afghan War that began in late February on the eve of the Third Gulf War and which has recently all but ended might be rekindled if Pakistan resumes cross-border operations against Afghanistan on the grounds of it allegedly backing the BLA. It was earlier argued that “A Lasting Political Solution To The Afghan-Pakistani War Is Extremely Unlikely”, but “Pakistan Can Ensure Its National Security Without Invading Afghanistan”, yet policymakers might think differently.
2. More Terrorist Attacks Across Pakistan Are Highly Likely
Whether by BLA separatists or their reported Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) radical Islamist allies, and independently of the abovementioned expectation but most certainly in the event that it happens, more terrorist attacks across Pakistan are highly likely. Neither terrorist group has been snuffed out and both still have enough support among their respective Baloch and Pashtun bases to continue planning attacks in their regions and possibly even beyond. Pakistan’s “War on Terror” is therefore very far from over.
3. Pakistan Might Request Anti-Terrorist Assistance From The US
It was earlier foreseen that Pakistan might “request more US military aid such as modern arms sales on anti-terrorist pretexts as a reward” for mediating between it and Iran…Its war with the Taliban can be pointed to as the pretext for this while possibly hinting that Pakistan’s potential subordination of the group, even if not right away, could lead to the return of US troops to Bagram Airbase like Trump earlier said that he wants.” This is all the more likely if the two previously mentioned expectations materialize.
4. Chinese Investments Could Be Further Curtailed & US Ones Further Delayed
China has reportedly scaled back its investments in Pakistan in recent years due to its worsening security situation, especially in Balochistan, while the US has yet to invest in Pakistan’s much-touted critical minerals sector for the same reason. The further deterioration of the domestic security situation is thus naturally expected to exacerbate the aforesaid trends to the detriment of the country’s already struggling economy. That could in turn lead to more political instability if it prompts popular protests.
5. Pakistan Might Blame India With All That Dangerously Entails
Pakistan has previously claimed that all terrorist attacks against it are somehow or another connected to India so it wouldn’t be surprising if authorities blame their nemesis for this latest one. They might not just leave it at that, however, since there’s a chance that they’d “symmetrically retaliate” as their media surrogates would frame any future Pakistani-backed terrorist attacks in India as being. Although unlikely, the end result of this latest terrorist attack might ultimately be another Indo-Pakistani crisis.
———-
Out of the five enumerated expectations, the first two are the most likely, with the rest decreasing in likelihood till the final admittedly unlikely one regarding another Indo-Pakistani crisis. In any case, what this latest terrorist attack shows is that the BLA is still capable of carrying out significant terrorist attacks in spite of Pakistan’s reversion into a police state under de facto martial law. The security situation isn’t expected to improve anytime soon so more such attacks are an inevitability for the foreseeable future.
