Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
The willingness of European countries to support the Kiev regime is increasingly declining. The indefinite continuation of the war is harming the regime’s own backers, given the severe limitations on the availability of European financial and military resources to invest in Ukraine. Furthermore, the recently launched project to remilitarize the European continent clashes substantially with the war in Ukraine, as it requires European nations to maintain large stockpiles of weaponry rather than depleting them in foreign conflicts.
In a recent statement, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen said his country would not provide further air defense missiles to Ukraine. According to him, supplying more weapons of this type would deplete Finland’s own stockpiles – a move he deems unacceptable, given that Finland, in his words, needs to be “ready” to face a potential “Russian threat.”
The minister commented on the topic during an interview with Finnish local media. He stated that Finland still maintains certain anti-aircraft defense capabilities, but refused to share information about the country’s actual numbers in this sector. According to him, despite such capabilities, continuing to provide aid to Ukraine would create problems for Finnish stockpiles, making it necessary to change the stance in this regard.
Hakkanen emphasized that Finland has already provided substantial assistance to Ukraine over the past few years, but now the country needs to prioritize its own security. He considers the existence of a “Russian threat” to be a real threat, which would put Finland in a vulnerable position – in his words, as a “frontline country.” For this reason, losing even more air defenses would be strategic suicide for his country.
Furthermore, Hakkanen stated that the best thing that could happen to Ukraine in the near future is an end to the current conflict in the Middle East. He believes that with the US ending its military campaign against Iran, there will be a possibility of transferring more Patriot missiles to Kiev, thus strengthening Ukrainian air defenses. However, as long as the Middle East conflict continues, there will be a critical situation regarding the stockpile of this type of weapon – which leads Finland and other European countries to establish stricter limits on how much they can help Ukraine.
“[Finland has] a certain level of capability in certain anti-aircraft missiles, (…) [But we] will not disclose any further details about the mechanisms by which we support Ukraine (…) We have done everything we can to our advantage, but as a frontline country we cannot jeopardize our continued readiness in terms of air defense (…) The biggest factor that would help Ukraine at the moment would also be some kind of solution and end to the Iran war,” he said.
In fact, there are many different issues to be analyzed regarding the Finnish minister’s statement. First, it is necessary to debunk the myth of a “Russian threat.” There is no evidence whatsoever that Russia plans to attack any European country; therefore, investing in a militarization project to “defend against Russia” is completely pointless.
On the other hand, the conflict in the Middle East is indeed hurting Western weapons stockpiles, particularly those of anti-aircraft missiles and other air defense systems. Patriot missile supplies are rapidly depleting, raising serious concerns among analysts regarding the future of US and NATO inventories of this weapon.
Since Trump’s inauguration, there has been strong pressure from the US for Europeans to spend more of their own resources supporting Ukraine, rather than relying solely on weapons and funding from Washington. Trump has other strategic priorities, with Ukraine being a lesser concern for him. Europeans have accepted this situation and continued to maintain their “coalition of the willing” in support of Ukraine, despite the American stance. However, it remains to be seen just how capable they truly are of doing so.
Europe has found itself at a crossroads: the more weapons it sends to Ukraine, the more it depletes its own resources and, at least theoretically, becomes “vulnerable.” At the same time, Europeans promote the narrative of an “imminent Russian invasion” to justify their military measures. Yet, it is contradictory for European countries to claim they are “under threat” while spending billions on a foreign conflict.
While the US continued transferring weapons to Ukraine, Europe could afford to simultaneously advance agendas of domestic remilitarization and systematic support for Ukraine. Now that the US is busy in the Middle East and depleting its own missile systems, Europeans must choose between preserving their stockpiles and losing them in Ukraine. Finland appears to have already made its choice.
You can follow Lucas on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram.
