It was assessed that “Zelensky’s 40-Day Influence Operation Backfired Badly In Kharkov & Odessa” after Russia ramped up its strikes against the first’s gas stations and the second’s ports as partial “blockades” to mildly outmatch Ukraine’s attempted drone-enforced “blockade” of Crimea. This was surprising since the rare escalations that Putin had hitherto authorized only concerned the two test uses of the Oreshniks in Ukraine and an occasional uptick in strikes against military-related infrastructure.
Be that as it may, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned the West in May that Russia would begin carrying out “systemic strikes” against Ukraine, which Putin approved over the summer for reshaping the Ukrainian Conflict’s dynamics as explained here in July amidst Zelensky’s influence operation. Whether by coincidence or because of it, this came after reports that the US depleted much of its air defense and tactical missile stockpiles during the Third Gulf War, thus indirectly weakening Ukraine as well.
Its resultant lack of air defenses opened it up to much more effective Russian strikes than at any time since the conflict began, while the US’ dearth of tactical missiles greatly reduces the chance that Ukraine obtains any more of them for further escalating against Russia like some now demand from the US. As Putin was dwelling on these observations and their implications for Russia’s pursuit of victory, Zelensky’s influence operation was beginning to inflict tangible damage to Russia’s strategic infrastructure.
The spree of strikes against oil facilities and civilian logistics centers followed Trump’s decision in June to “escalate to de-escalate” with Russia via a Ukrainian-fronted “war of attrition” backed by the US and surprisingly also France through their assistance in planning drone routes and even picking targets. All three took for granted that Putin would remain so cautious about inadvertently sparking World War III that he’d eschew consistently “escalating to de-escalate” with Ukraine in retaliation no matter what.
For whatever opinion one might have about Putin’s restraint up till this point, and some have considered it excessive to the point of turning Russia into the new “Christ of Nations” with everything that scenario would entail as regards his country’s de facto martyrdom, he’s not a low-IQ individual. What’s meant by this is that he realized that the West sought to systematically deindustrialize and demilitarize Russia through the abovementioned campaign and consequently concluded that it’s an existential threat.
He therefore couldn’t in good conscience remain as restrained as before since passively allowing the US-led West’s new Ukrainian-fronted “war of attrition” to proceed unimpeded would ultimately mean the end of Russia’s sovereignty that he authorized the special operation to safeguard in the first place. To be sure, Putin is only mildly “escalating to de-escalate” with Ukraine within certain limits due to his innate caution about inadvertently sparking World War III, but it’s still a notable change in his calculations.
The optics of Russia pounding Ukraine while the US plays it cool with Iran (despite still talking tough) due to reportedly depleting practically all of its tactical ballistic missiles also serves to reinforce perceptions of Russia’s continued military strength vis-à-vis the US. The aforesaid would be cemented if Putin ever radically “escalates to de-escalate”, but given how cautious he is, Zelensky would likely have to radically escalate first, though Trump might not help after seeing how Putin just reacted to this latest escalation.
