Zelensky gave Lukashenko one week to remove air defenses and drone relay transmitters along their joint border otherwise Ukraine will do it for him. This comes amidst their growing tensions that have been boiling since spring after Zelensky implied that Ukraine could capture Lukashenko like the US captured Maduro on the pretext of preempting a supposedly imminent Belarusian invasion of Ukraine. This closely resembles their summer 2024 crisis which readers learn more about here, here, and here.
The crucial difference between then and now, however, is that the West and Ukraine no longer have any respect for Russia’s “red lines” after Putin’s noble efforts to avert a dangerous escalation cycle that could inadvertently lead to World War III were misperceived by them as “weakness”. Being a consummate pragmatist, he projected his calculations onto them and thus thought that they’d stop after realizing that they’re playing with fire, but all that happened is that they no longer take Russia’s deterrence seriously.
Over the past two years, Ukraine invaded Russia’s Kursk Region, conducted “Operation Spiderweb” against its nuclear triad, tried assassinating Putin at his residence in Valdai, began carrying out long-range drone strikes against St. Petersburg (which many speculate transit through Baltic airspace) and recently Moscow too, and Trump is now preparing to “escalate to de-escalate” after sensing even more “weakness” than ever from Putin. This has sparked a harsh reaction from top Russian thought leaders.
Top hawk Sergey Karaganov still insists on a first strike against Europe, first with conventional weapons and then with nukes if they retaliate, for restoring deterrence even though Putin declared in early June that such talk “is not simply nonsense; it is a provocation.” Meanwhile, former top Russian spy Andrey Bezrukov warned that the West is trying to “boil the frog”, with one of their goals being to neutralize its nuclear forces. He called for Russia to stop being so “nice” to its foes and finally enforce its “red lines”.
Zelensky’s ultimatum to Lukashenko gives Putin the chance to finally restore deterrence. Belarus is Russia’s mutual defense ally and they both participate in the Union State project. Moreover, Russia also has hypersonic Oreshnik missiles and tactical nukes in Belarus, which were deployed precisely for deterrence purposes. As Putin himself declared in September 2024, “We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State.”
Accordingly, Putin could advise Lukashenko to reject Zelensky’s ultimatum, promising that Russia will retaliate against Ukraine for any attack against Belarus by authorizing the first-ever combat use of the Oreshniks (he recently clarified that prior such uses in Ukraine were for testing purposes). If Ukraine aggression against Belarus is significant, such as if it attacks the 500 targets that a top drone commander claimed late last month had been identified there, then Russia could retaliate with tactical nukes instead.
Russia can’t allow US-backed Ukraine to attack Belarus with impunity otherwise it risks losing its closest ally, whether to destruction or Lukashenko’s “defection” to the West, either scenario of which would shift the strategic balance of power in the Ukrainian Conflict to Russia’s supreme disadvantage. Putin must therefore finally restore deterrence or risk the worst-case endgame scenario in this proxy war. The conflict’s outcome is still far from decided, but that could instantly change depending on what he does.
