Bloomberg reported last week that “Germany, France, UK Sketch Plan for Putin Talks on Ukraine”, which follows the EU’s interest in appointing an envoy for talks with Russia. Shortly after Bloomberg’s report, German newspaper of record Die Zeit reported that the German government had already by that time been preparing several weeks for this. Later that same day, Zelensky published an open letter to Putin in which he called for an all-for-all prisoner exchange and a full ceasefire for the duration of resumed talks.
What had hitherto been the US’ exclusive domain as regards Western talks with Russia is therefore on the verge of becoming Europe’s – particularly the E3 of France, Germany, and the UK – as the US steps back to focus more on Iran, the Indo-Pacific, and the Western Hemisphere. The same goes for its hitherto monopoly on Western talks with Russian ally Belarus, which now include French President Emmanuel Macron, who recently called Lukashenko for the first time in four years.
This came one month after France extended its nuclear umbrella over Poland and then other parts of Europe, importantly following the Butyagin-Poczobut prisoner swap that also included several others. That last event gave rise to expectations that Poland might begin to resume bilateral dialogue with Belarus following the US’ lead but has yet to happen. Instead, the Macron-Lukashenko call coincided with the reported visit of the French spy chief to Minsk, thus leaving Poland out of the loop yet again.
Given the recent reports about the potentially impending resumption of EU-Russian talks, with or without the same occurring as regards French, German, and/or UK bilateral ones with Russia, there’s a growing likelihood that Poland will be left in the lurch once more. The last point is important since this wouldn’t be the first time that has happened. “Top Polish Media Lamented Their Country Being Excluded From The Ukrainian Endgame” during Biden’s Berlin Summit on Ukraine in October 2024.
It was then concluded after Politico reported that “Poland fumes about being cut out of Ukraine peace talks” due to not being invited to the next ones in Geneva and London that “All Key Players Have Their Reasons For Excluding Poland From The Ukrainian Peace Process”. Readers can review that preceding hyperlinked analysis to discover each respective reason. History is now on the brink of repeating itself, except this time, the possibly upcoming talks might be the final ones that end the Ukrainian Conflict.
As happened at Yalta, Poland’s nominal allies might once again cut deals with Russia at its expense, albeit without any loss of territory this time around. These could concern everything from the possible resumption of Nord Stream II, though this time under US control, to the future European security architecture. Despite being led by some people of questionable loyalty to Poland, Poles are still a very proud people, and being excluded from such talks would be shameful and infuriating for them.
Poland really only has three options: It can let itself be excluded from such talks with all the entails for potential consequences to its interests; it can boldly engage Russia (and Belarus) on its own bilaterally as European NATO’s largest army and the indisputable leader of its Eastern Flank; or it can rally the “Viking Bloc” and the “Three Seas Initiative” states around the creation of a Polish-led “Intermarium” within “NATO 3.0” as a “cordon sanitaire” between the E3 and Russia. Poland must soon decide what to do.
