Zelensky claimed that “the Russians are considering scenarios for additional attacks against Ukraine – targeting our northern regions, our Chernihiv-Kyiv direction” from Belarus under the supposed guise of their nuclear drills there. These exercises complement its latest test of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile that collectively bolster Russia’s deterrence capabilities. The larger context concerns the mixed signals sent by Belarus’ warming ties with the US and Zelensky’s threat to kidnap Lukashenko.
Zelensky’s former Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba also claimed just last month that Belarus might be preparing to attack Ukraine in a post that was fact-checked here at the time, all of which comes after summer 2024’s Belarusian-Ukrainian war scare that readers can learn more about here, here, and here. Just last week, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service claimed that Ukrainian drone teams had deployed to NATO member Latvia ahead of attacks against Russia from there, warning that Russia will retaliate.
The combined effect of these latest tensions stretching from NATO member Latvia to Russian ally Belarus and NATO-backed Ukraine has been the obvious exacerbation of NATO-Russian tensions seeing as how this line of countries runs between their spheres of military influence. Moreover, France and Poland plan to carry out regular nuclear drills in the coming future directed against Russia (particularly Kaliningrad) and Belarus, thus further exacerbating fears of a hot NATO-Russian war breaking out by miscalculation.
Several scenarios are possible, the first of which is that everything remains manageable without any escalation along any of these fronts: Belarus-Ukraine, Russia-Latvia, and France/Poland-Russia/Belarus. The second is that Russia once again attacks Ukraine from Belarus, with or without Belarusian participation, or Belarus does so on its own with Russian backing. That seems unlikely, however, and relatively more likely is Ukraine attacking Belarus on the (arguably false) pretext of a preemptive strike.
The scenario of Belarusian/Russian-Ukrainian escalation could occur independently of the Russian-Latvian escalation scenario or in parallel, thus segueing into that scenario, which would likely see Russia retaliate as threatened if Ukrainian drone teams go through with attacking it from there. This scenario is much more dangerous but could either remain manageable if the NATO allies that are stationed there don’t retaliate, especially if the US doesn’t (and tells them not to too), or radically escalate.
Finally, the France/Poland-Russia/Belarus escalation scenario would then become more likely if the Russian-Latvian one unfolds since France would feel compelled to defend Polish troops that might back Latvia, whether on its border or against Kaliningrad and/or Belarus. If France backed down after signaling through their newly announced regular nuclear drills that its nuclear umbrella now covers Poland, then Russia would likely destroy Poland and the Baltic States, while backing it up could lead to World War III.
In all three cases, it’s respectively Ukraine, Latvia, and Poland and France that arguably have the prerogative when it comes to whether or not to escalate against Russia, and they’re all US partners. Therefore, it falls upon Trump to either coerce them into standing down or decide whether it’s worth sparking World War III with Russia by retaliating to its own retaliation to these provocations that they’re cooking up, but he hasn’t thus far signaled anything in public so his calculations remain unclear.
