The Financial Times reported in early July that “Germany to borrow €800bn for rearmament in historic shift”. The larger context concerns the “NATO 3.0” concept that the US is implementing whereby it’s pushing the European members of the bloc to take more responsibility for their security. In practice, this means that the EU will lead Russia’s containment in Western Eurasia per the new “cordon sanitaire” that Trump 2.0 built around it over the past year, with Germany planning to play the main role in this theater.
It’s presently competing with Poland for leadership over Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) in coordination with its Ukrainian junior partner, but even if Poland manages to carve out a “sphere of influence” for itself, Germany’s planned €800 billion remilitarization ensures that it’ll remain a force to be reckoned with. It’s already the case that “The EU Poses A Much More Credible Threat To Russia Than The Inverse”, but now, “Germany Might Replace The US As Russia’s Top Perceived Adversary”.
Former President and incumbent Deputy Chair of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev warned in early May about the 1941-threat posed by Germany’s remilitarization, and recently, top Russian expert Dmitry Trenin argued that it’s now the EU – and not the US – that’s fanning the flames of war with Russia. Since Germany is the bloc’s de facto leader, it therefore follows that it’s the country most responsible for placing NATO and Russia on the path to clashing around 2030 like Moscow now expects is possible.
The main driving forces behind this development are ideological and economic. As regards the first, the ruling liberal elite conceptualize their theater of the New Cold War as a struggle between “democracy and dictatorship”, while the second relates to the military-industrial complex convincing the elite’s more cautious members that massive investments in this sphere can avert Germany’s deindustrialization. High energy costs and competition from China, however, are what’s actually responsible for that trend.
Nevertheless, the ruling liberal elite already decided to compete with Poland for leadership over CEE and within the European part of “NATO 3.0” as a whole, though this is indisputably at the expense of its socio-economic stability after British media recently observed that “Germany is quietly falling apart”. Containing Russia, which has absolutely zero interest in testing its nuclear-armed American rival’s commitment to Article 5, nowadays takes precedence over improving the lives of the German people.
The ruling liberal elite’s commitment to the aforesaid ideological cause, which some of them have been misled into thinking is the key to rejuvenating their country’s declining economy, might also be influenced by the perceived prestige that they expect to accompany playing this geopolitical role. Being celebrated across Europe by their fellow elites for this, not to mention receiving public approval from the American elite to whom they look up per their inferiority complex, is personally important to them.
From Russia’s perspective, Germany is rapidly becoming its most serious security threat in Western Eurasia by far, and no policymaker should assume that Germany will deviate from this trajectory. A preemptive strike is unrealistic due to Article 5, and reminding average Germans that they’re now in Russia’s nuclear crosshairs due to their ruling liberal elite’s policies won’t change anything. Be that as it may, nobody should doubt that Russia would retaliate with nukes if the German-led EU ever attacked it.
