Zelensky claimed that “The Americans raised a question: ‘What if Ukraine joins Nato? Would Ukraine withdraw from Donbas?’ This was the first time this had been raised.” BBC reported that “He went on to say that if he received a specific proposal that contained security guarantees, no constraints on Ukraine’s military and funds to rebuild the country, he would put it to a referendum.” The US didn’t confirm that it floated this idea, but even if it did no matter its intent, it’s unacceptable to Russia under any conditions.
Putin had just told Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner during their latest meeting last week that he wants to completely resolve the Ukrainian Conflict by addressing its root causes. This includes NATO’s continued eastward expansion. He also declared that the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine under any conditions would restart the conflict. As a NATO member, Ukraine would host alliance forces and could drag the bloc into a hot war with Russia, ergo the unacceptability of this scenario for him.
He also told them that “We know that territorial issues are understood differently on both sides. What’s more important to us are the people who live there, their traditions, their culture, and their right to live by their own rules and in accordance with their traditional values.” This proves that territorial issues aren’t at the core of the conflict and implies that Putin is willing to compromise on them, perhaps by relying on this legal loophole here, so long as Russia’s security interests are assured.
Ukraine’s membership in NATO with the consequently assumed hosting of NATO forces and “no constraints on Ukraine’s military” in exchange for the one-quarter to one-tenth of Donbass that Kiev still controls would be a bad deal for Russia in and of itself and especially if it receives nothing else in return. Such an outcome would reconceptualize the entire conflict as a territorial one in contradiction of Putin’s famous proclamation on Day One elaborating on the root security causes vis-à-vis NATO expansionism.
It would also endanger Russia’s Belarusian ally due to NATO encircling it on three sides in that scenario upon formally expanding into Ukraine. Belarusian-Ukrainian border clashes sparked by Kiev could therefore lead to a hot NATO-Russian war due to their mutual defense obligations to Kiev and Minsk respectively. Russia couldn’t back down in that event otherwise it would discredit itself and NATO would then expand to the Belarusian-Russian border if Minsk falls as it’s expected to do if it’s hung out to dry.
Likewise, NATO couldn’t back down either otherwise it too would discredit itself once the Ukrainian Conflict resumes if the bloc doesn’t directly attack Russia for attacking what would then be its formal Ukrainian member, so its official expansion into Ukraine could throw NATO into a future dilemma too. It’s therefore not in either side’s objective interests, only in Ukraine’s subjective ones as Zelensky perceives them to be, which are premised on the false assumption that Russia would back down in this scenario.
“Russia’s Reported Reaffirmation Of Its 2021 Security Guarantee Requests Is A Negotiating Tactic” to inspire creative diplomatic solutions for resolving the NATO-Russian security dilemma caused by the bloc’s continued expansionism. Putin is ready to compromise with NATO and Ukraine in order to ensure Russia’s security interests, but precisely because these interests were the reason why he authorized the special operation in the first place, he can’t abandon them just for the rest of Donbass.
