By Tyler Durden
Summary:
- Following reports of pressure from Trump, Bibi announces the search for a ceasefire in Lebanon. Over 250 people were killed and more than 1,000 injured in Lebanon as a result of Wednesday’s surprise attack by the Israeli military. The UAE, Pakistan, and even the EU (Kallas) condemned the attack.
- Trump is “optimistic” that an agreement is within reach (NBC). The White House confirms that Vice President Vance will lead the Kushner-Witkoff delegation to Pakistan, a move that has been received positively in Tehran and Islamabad.
- Trump warns of further military action should Iran fail to comply with the “genuine” ceasefire agreement, following disagreement over the status of the ceasefire in Lebanon as part of the agreement.
- Despite some last-minute Israeli shots in Lebanon, the bombing in the Gulf and the Middle East has largely ceased.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively controlled by Iran: On Wednesday, only a few ships passed through the strait. TASS reports that only 15 “vetted” tankers are allowed through daily. On Thursday, the first non-Iranian tanker since the ceasefire will pass through the strait.
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Trump “optimistic”: Iran deal within reach after first non-Iranian tanker passes through the Strait of Hormuz since ceasefire
AFP, citing the maritime traffic service MarineTraffic, reports that the first non-Iranian tanker has passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the ceasefire.
According to NBC, Trump is also optimistic that a peace agreement with Iran is within reach, as Vance is scheduled to lead the American delegation at the talks with Pakistan on Saturday morning.
The Ayatollah calls on the Gulf states to distance themselves from Washington:
Translation of “X”: We are still waiting for a proper response from you, our southern neighbors, so that we can demonstrate our fraternal relationship and goodwill. This will not be possible until you renounce the arrogant powers that never miss an opportunity to humiliate and exploit you.
This is the clearest signal yet from the US president himself that negotiations could actually be gaining momentum. He also told NBC that Tehran is “more approachable than it appears on the outside.” But despite these “positive signals,” the conflict between Israel and Lebanon could still derail a lasting peace.
A Hezbollah member of parliament stated that the organization rejects any direct talks between Lebanon and Israel.
Bibi: We are entering into direct negotiations with Lebanon.
Enormous development according to Axios:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: In light of Lebanon’s repeated calls for direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed the Cabinet yesterday to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible. The negotiations will focus on the disarmament of Hezbollah and the establishment of peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon. Israel welcomes today’s call by the Lebanese Prime Minister for the evacuation of Beirut.
This comes after NBC News just reported that President Trump has asked Israel to limit its airstrikes on Lebanon. However, there are some caveats: A senior Israeli official stated that negotiations would begin in the “coming days” and are not yet underway. Furthermore, according to Newsquawk (and via Now 14), the negotiations are taking place “under fire”—meaning that attacks on Lebanon could continue.
Oil prices are plummeting and stock prices are rising as a result of this news…
15 “approved” ships per day are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz: TASS
The Associated Press emphasized on Thursday: “The Iranian authorization system for ships that are granted safe passage after inspection by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains unchanged, despite US President Donald Trump’s call for the strait to be reopened.”
“Last week, with 72 transits, was the busiest week since the war began, but is still 90% below normal volume, according to Lloyd’s,” the AP report continued. “Most of the vessels allowed through are linked to Iran , although some Indian ships were allowed through thanks to diplomatic intervention by the Indian government.” There is currently little indication of how Iran intends to proceed, and much may depend on whether Israel halts its attacks on Lebanon. Tehran has threatened to resume its ballistic missile strikes as long as Israel’s actions against Hezbollah and massive airstrikes on Beirut continue.
Russia, an ally of Iran, has quoted Iranian sources in its media as saying that Iran will not allow more than 15 ships per day to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Regarding the Iranian transit protocol, which reportedly could include a fee of up to $2 million per ship, payable in cryptocurrency, Lloyd’s List outlines the current situation as follows:
- Ships passing through the narrow passage must coordinate with the IRGC navy.
- Iran’s latest guidelines explicitly warn of ship mines in the main shipping lane of the strait.
- The IRGC Navy continues to inspect all traffic passing through the strait based on geopolitical affiliation.
Optimism: The bombs are largely silent.
Asia One journalist Anas Mallick writes: “To my knowledge, both the US delegation and the Iranian delegation will be in Islamabad tomorrow at daybreak to hold talks.”
There is a degree of optimism regarding the continuation of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, as the Middle East remained relatively quiet overnight into Thursday, despite Israel firing a few final shots into Lebanon. In this context, the Iranian president reiterated Tehran’s position that Israel’s renewed incursion into Lebanon and its actions against Hezbollah violate the ceasefire, warning that these actions could render the talks moot even before they have begun.
Reuters notes: “As the US and Iran attempt to solidify a ceasefire, Israel is seizing more territory from its neighbors in preparation for a long, drawn-out conflict across the Middle East. Israel’s creation of ‘buffer zones’ in the Gaza Strip, Syria, and now Lebanon reflects a strategic shift following the attacks of October 7, 2023, which has placed the country in a quasi-permanent state of war.”
Nevertheless, Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates have stated that no air threats have been detected or are imminent in recent hours, a rare positive development. The number of Iranian attacks on Arab states in the Persian Gulf region has decreased. Normalcy is also gradually returning to Israeli society: emergency and security measures have been lifted in most parts of the country, and Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv resumed operations at midnight.
The reality of who actually controls the Strait of Hormuz became clear in an uncomfortable press conference at the White House:
Translation of “X”: Q: As of today, who controls the Strait of Hormuz?
LEAVITT: We expect the road to be opened immediately.
Q: Who is controlling the road right now?
LEAVITT: refuses to answer
Over 250 dead in Lebanon in a single day
However, the fact remains that on Wednesday – the first day of the fragile ceasefire – only a few tankers were allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz before Iran again blocked traffic, citing the massive Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which were the largest and deadliest of the war so far.
Sky News, citing state health officials, reports that at least 254 people were killed in Israeli attacks across Lebanon on Wednesday. At least 91 people died in Beirut alone, while rescue operations and the treatment of the wounded continue in hospitals across the region. More than 1,000 Lebanese were wounded and injured. The Lebanese government has declared a day of mourning.
Trump threatens renewed attacks if Tehran fails to reach a “real” ceasefire agreement – oil price rises
Meanwhile, in a message posted overnight on Truth Social, President Trump declared that “all US ships, aircraft and military personnel” will remain in the region around Iran until the “real agreement” on a ceasefire is “fully respected” – and warned of further US military action should this not happen.
The renewed threats have driven the WTI price back above $100 …
Here is President Trump’s full statement on Truth Social, in which he warns that the shooting could start again, “bigger, better and stronger than anything you’ve ever seen before”:
The Iranian leadership, meanwhile, insists that Lebanon be included in the Iranian ceasefire and has accused Washington, on this basis, of already violating at least three clauses of the ten-point plan. It, too, holds significant leverage – particularly since it still de facto controls the Strait of Hormuz and is capable of repeating attacks on energy facilities in the Gulf states.
Iran on ceasefire violations in Lebanon: “Choose war or ceasefire – you can’t have both.”
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told CBS News that Israel’s attacks on Lebanon on Wednesday were “a serious violation” of the ceasefire agreement, and stressed that the US must “choose between war and ceasefire – you can’t have both at the same time”.
“You can’t demand a ceasefire and then accept conditions, accept areas to which the ceasefire applies, explicitly mentioning Lebanon, and then your own ally simply starts a massacre,” said Khatibzadeh.
Netanyahu’s message remains that Israel can attack Hezbollah anytime and “wherever” it wants. “In Beirut, we eliminated Ali Youssef Kharshi, the personal secretary of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, and one of his closest confidants. At the same time, the IDF attacked a number of terrorist infrastructures in southern Lebanon overnight: border crossings used to transport thousands of weapons, rockets, and launchers, as well as weapons depots, launch sites, and Hezbollah’s headquarters,” Netanyahu said.
Translation of “X”: The Israeli airstrike on Al-Basta, Lebanon
“Our message is clear: Anyone who acts against Israeli civilians will be attacked. We will continue to attack Hezbollah wherever necessary until we have restored full security for the residents of the north.”
Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Minister Saar stated: “In the last 40 days, Hezbollah has fired approximately 6,500 rockets, grenades and drones at Israel.”
Pakistan welcomes Vance as head of the US delegation
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt clarified on Wednesday that Vice President JD Vance will lead the US-side talks in Pakistan, headed by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Tehran had previously expressed its contempt for the latter two, accusing them of lying and deceiving Iran when it was still in the first round of negotiations before the surprise attack by the US and Israel. The duo is also accused of lacking technical expertise regarding the nuclear issue.
Al Jazeera also reports that the selection of Vance as head of the US delegation “is being received very positively in Pakistan.” Pakistan’s former UN ambassador Maleeha Lodhi says: “Politicians know the art of the possible, and therefore I think it is a good decision by the Trump administration to let Vance lead the negotiations.”
Vance has emphasized that Trump is “impatiently waiting to make progress” with Iran and warned that Iranian officials, should they not negotiate in good faith, “will find out that President Trump is not someone to be trifled with.” The US claims Iran “begged” for a ceasefire, while Tehran insists it was the other way around.
More geopolitical headlines
via Newsquawk…
- US President Donald Trump wrote: “All US ships, aircraft and military personnel … will remain stationed in and around Iran until the actual AGREEMENT is fully complied with.”
- US President Donald Trump wrote: “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED IT, AND IT WON’T BE THERE WHEN WE NEED IT AGAIN. THINK OF GREENLAND, THAT HUGE, WRONG-RUN PIECE OF ICE!!!”
- According to the WSJ, the Trump administration is considering a plan to punish NATO members deemed uncooperative during the Iran war by relocating US troops to more supportive countries, which could lead to possible base closures in Europe, including in Spain or Germany.
- NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told President Trump that most European nations had provided support.
- US officials stated they did not rule out a resumption of fighting in Iran and confirmed that Trump would not make any major concessions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, warning that Iran’s demands could trigger a renewed conflict.
- According to Al Jazeera, the Iranian deputy foreign minister stated that the speaker of parliament would lead the Iranian delegation at the upcoming talks, with communication continuing through Pakistan.
- The Iranian ambassador to Pakistan stated that the delegation would arrive in Islamabad on Thursday evening to hold “serious talks” based on Iran’s 10-point proposal.
- According to ISNA, the IRGC navy announced alternative shipping routes to avoid potential sea mines.
- According to CNN, the IRGC stated that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz decreased significantly and then came to a complete standstill after Israel, in their view, broke the ceasefire in Lebanon.
- Iranian MP Ibrahim Azizi declared: “You have once again proven that you do not understand the meaning of a ceasefire” and “Only fire will discipline you… so wait for it.”
- According to SPA, Saudi Arabia and Iran discussed de-escalation in a telephone call.
- A source from the Pakistani Foreign Ministry indicated, according to Al Arabiya, that the US had decided against including Lebanon in the ceasefire with Iran.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel would continue to attack Hezbollah, with the IDF targeting infrastructure in southern Lebanon overnight.
- According to Channel 12, the Israeli Energy Ministry ordered the resumption of operations on the Karish gas platform after it was suspended during the war.
- Hezbollah declared that its attacks on Israel would continue until the aggression ceased and fired rockets, citing violations of the ceasefire, as reported by the Fars news agency.
- According to the Fars news agency, a rocket was fired from Lebanon toward northern Israel.
- According to the Anadolu news agency, Israeli attacks in Lebanon continued despite the ceasefire with Iran.
- French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump and declared that their decision to accept the ceasefire was the best way forward.
- According to Ukrainian media, Russia fired 119 drones at Ukraine overnight.
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