It was assessed that “Trump’s Legacy Will Ultimately Be Determined By The Outcome Of The Third Gulf War” since the surging living costs that it was responsible for are what led to the Republicans’ bloodbath during the midterms after some MAGA voters either sat out the election or voted Democrat in protest. This explanation for what happened was independently echoed shortly after by JD Vance, who cited an unnamed pollster in a post on X who informed him in advance that this would occur and the reason why.
Even in the best-case scenario that the US and Iran wrap up their war in the next few weeks, OilPrice.com reported that “Global Diesel Crunch Set to Last Well Into 2027” due to reduced refining capacity in the Gulf and Russia, both attributable to their respective conflicts. It’s thus not enough to end the Third Gulf War since the Ukrainian Conflict would have to soon end too in order for there to be any hope of the global energy market stabilizing and thus giving MAGA a chance at survival in 2028.
The gradual return of Gulf and Russian energy to the market across 2027 might not reduce domestic US fuel prices and the overall cost of living quickly enough for voters’ liking, and there’s a lot that can go wrong to once again spike prices and roll back the aforesaid successes. Therefore, more than likely, Trump must curtail energy exports to Europe in order to prioritize the domestic market. According to Eurostat, the US supplied 18.8% of the bloc’s oil and 63.2% of its LNG in Q2 2026, which is a lot.
Curtailing energy exports to Europe is more realistic than curtailing them to Asia since Russia could reasonably replace whatever the US refuses to sell to Europe. Several major pipelines between Russia and the EU lay dormant due to sanctions. While the US reasserted its pre-2022 declining influence over the EU in large part by replacing the EU’s voluntarily lost Russian imports, that’s no longer politically sustainable due to the global energy crisis, which threatens to sweep MAGA into the dustbin of history.
The Europeans would have no alternative but to resume Russian energy imports if Trump soon announced that American exports to the bloc will be curtailed by next month, for example, which would give those three and Ukraine all of November to agree to a grand deal between them. It was earlier reported that one of the pillars of Trump’s peace plan is the resumption of Russian pipeline exports to the EU in order to restore their complex interdependence for reducing the chances of another conflict.
Complementarily, “Creative Energy Diplomacy Can Lead To The US Getting The EU To Unfreeze Russia’s Assets”, which the US could in turn return to Russia for stakes in these same pipelines and associated energy companies as a “political safeguard” amidst the resumption of Russian energy exports to Europe. In parallel, the features of the emerging post-war European security architecture that were identified here could then be solidified, which would amount to a truly grand deal that might save MAGA in 2028.
Ending the Third Gulf War would gradually return regional exports to the global market, while ending the Ukrainian one would enable Russia to repair its damaged refineries for the same purpose, both of which would be important steps to this end. Be that as it may, without redirecting some of the US’ EU exports to the domestic market, prices might not fall fast enough for voters’ liking. It’ll take immense political will, but Trump must therefore implement the proposed sequence otherwise he risks losing everything.
