By Riley Waggaman (aka “Edward Slavsquat”)
The Russians want to know why. There are various theories.
In recent weeks, the Russian government has made a series of decisions so utterly incomprehensible that some Russians now believe they are witnessing a deliberate and targeted attempt to blow up their country from within. (Your own government is probably behaving similarly. See? We’re not so different after all. Why can’t we all just get along?)
Today I would like to present you with a selection of Russian-language comments on this topic.
But first: a brief background.
The first major event causing extreme unrest in Russian society is the government’s campaign to block Telegram and restrict internet access, while simultaneously forcing everyone to use Russia’s new FSB messenger, MAX. As part of this campaign, the Federal Service for the Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) is also waging a veritable war against VPNs, which have become virtually indispensable for internet access in Russia.
Meanwhile, mobile internet outages are occurring regularly across the country. In some areas, mobile internet has been completely down for months. The government has created a “whitelist” of “approved” websites and apps that can be accessed during these outages. (Reports indicate that they have even begun testing this “whitelist” on private Wi-Fi networks around Rostov-on-Don.) The official justification for these restrictions is that they are necessary to combat drone attacks. However, recent weeks have seen some of the largest and most destructive drone attacks against Russia since the start of the SMO, so, as is often the case, the official explanation may not be the most convincing.
Roskomnadzor is still far from completely blocking Telegram (it usually works with a VPN), and the attack on “unauthorized” web traffic has already led to some catastrophic “friendly fire” incidents. For example, the government agency reportedly blocked IP addresses used to process bank card payments, resulting in an hours-long outage of digital payment services in Moscow.
Then there is the slaughter of the Siberian cows.
To make a long (and ongoing) story short: In several regions of Siberia, authorities are killing the livestock of small farms, ostensibly to stop the spread of disease (without bothering to test the animals before slaughter). The farmers were compensated with paltry sums, representing only a fraction of their animals’ actual market value. Many cannot afford to buy new animals and are now financially ruined.
When farmers began sharing videos of their cows being slaughtered for no reason, the authorities resorted to traditional terror and intimidation tactics.
When that didn’t work, the state government claimed that the videos documenting the insane cow slaughter were AI-generated fakes.
Meanwhile, the livestock holdings of large and politically well-connected agricultural enterprises in the region remained unaffected.
All of this raises the question: Why is the Russian government doing all these extremely destructive and foolish things?
Russian-language news media and Telegram channels are spreading various theories that could help answer this question.
Let us begin with a commentary published at the end of March by Channel Stalingrad, an excellent independent media outlet published by “like-minded individuals who reject the liberal capitalism imposed on Russia after the collapse of the USSR”:
Telegram is effectively blocked, Putin’s authorities make no secret of their plans to restrict internet access through a system of “whitelisted sites,” and mobile internet is increasingly being shut down under the pretext of combating drones. Furthermore, a bill has been introduced in the State Duma that would practically prohibit criticism and accusations against individuals in the media until a legally binding conviction. This has outraged even those who are completely loyal to the Kremlin.
This is a blow to everyone, especially those who earn money online and on social media by advertising their goods and services. It also simply causes everyday inconveniences for absolutely all Russian citizens. Yet the Kremlin seems to have lost its mind. The reason for this is most likely its conviction in the immutability of its power and the silence of the people.
But it is impossible to ignore the fact that the “Tsar’s” lawlessness has reached cosmic proportions. What is Vladimir Vladimirovich planning? What is he preparing his “vertical” for? Mobilization? War with NATO? Logically (if the concept of logic applies to the “vertical”), the Ozero-Cooperative [the group of oligarchs who support Putin] needs a completely controlled information space to nip any “surprises” in the bud. Combined with war weariness, all of this creates at least a basis for protests. And this is not just information noise. […]
But what is currently shaking the Tsar’s throne most is the lawlessness in Novosibirsk, the [“anti-epidemic” measures] that have deprived a huge number of people of their livelihoods without any justification – not even legal. The farmers interviewed do not believe the diagnoses of pasteurellosis and rabies: anyone who has been raising livestock for a long time would easily recognize the symptoms. […]
Besides the Novosibirsk region, the cattle genocide was also perpetrated in the Altai and Transbaikal regions, in Buryatia, and in the Altai Republic. […]
The governor of the Novosibirsk region, Andrei Travnikov, described the mass slaughter of cattle as “a strict but necessary veterinary measure.” This is nothing unusual for Russia’s “leader.” Putin’s officials are not accustomed to taking responsibility. We will never learn the truth from them. Because the tales about the slaughter of cattle due to pasteurellosis do not stand up to close scrutiny.
Schizophrenia knows no bounds. They don’t even remember their own decisions. On October 31, 2022, the Ministry of Agriculture, with its Regulation No. 770, approved veterinary regulations for the implementation of preventive, diagnostic, therapeutic, restrictive, and other measures, as well as for the imposition and lifting of quarantines and other restrictions, aimed at preventing the spread of various types of pasteurellosis and eliminating outbreaks. This regulation stands in complete contradiction to the lawlessness currently taking place in the Novosibirsk region and other regions.
The uproar on Telegram, which is about to be blocked or has already been blocked, has partly helped to draw attention to the situation. However, the only thing this public awareness campaign has achieved is control over the proceedings themselves and at least some regulations regarding compensation payments. But even that is far from certain.
What is happening here is utter lawlessness and legal chaos. A logical question arises: What is the purpose? Perhaps some members of the Kremlin elite are using these information channels to fight their rivals, acting without regard for the consequences. This is what happened, for example, in 2023, when the desire to remove Shoigu from the Russian Ministry of Defense through blanket criticism of the army command and the promotion of Wagner triggered Prigozhin’s rebellion. Incidentally, the criticism of Telegram’s closure is often interpreted as a battle between the “Kremlin towers.” One of them is advocating for “de-Telegramization,” while others are trying to incite a rebellion against it. Consequently, the farmers in the Novosibirsk region may very well have become victims of the machinations of Putin’s “vertical,” which is extremely far removed from the region, from livestock farming, and from the aspirations of the ordinary people under its control.
If this is indeed the case, Putin has lost control of the state. And this could very well end in disaster. Very soon.
Our next comment comes from Yandex’s blogging platform, which is something like the Russian Substack:
According to the agenda, our country is on the verge of a giant leap forward. Admittedly, the nature of this leap raises questions for those accustomed to measuring progress by factories built, rockets launched, or technologies introduced. But this is clearly an outdated approach. Modern Russian management has discovered a simpler and more effective path – development through subtraction.
Imagine a gardener who wants to grow a giant pumpkin. A typical gardener fertilizes the soil, waters the beds, and protects the seedlings from frost. Our strategic gardener, however, has a different approach: the pumpkin will grow to enormous proportions if weeds are prevented from growing, if clouds are prevented from passing over the pumpkin without soaking it with rain, if premature frost is prevented…
In short, a new word in agricultural technology – you just have to think carefully about what to prohibit, compile a long and comprehensive list of prohibitions and impose them on the pumpkin: Grow, you bastard!
In the digital realm, we live in a state of strict asceticism. The internet is sometimes shut down, sometimes left on, but always with restrictions. VPNs are sometimes banned, sometimes permitted, but only by subscription, like premium access to freedom, and for a fee. YouTube, social media, Roblox – everything that evokes a global world is being crushed by the steamroller of digital sovereignty. The logic is simple: if you remove everything incomprehensible and foreign, something native will inevitably flourish. Admittedly, so far only the market for workarounds is thriving, but that’s a minor detail. […]
It’s as if the government has decided that national development isn’t about creating something new, but about completely eradicating the old. If you ban everything bad, it automatically becomes good. If you take away people’s internet access, they start watching Skabeva and Solovyov on TV [government propaganda]. If you ban vaping, everyone quits smoking. If you increase fines, everyone becomes law-abiding.
But history teaches us something different: prohibitions don’t create a future. They merely preserve the present. You can ban English words, but without modern technology, the language will still decline. You can prohibit travel, but without the exchange of knowledge, science will atrophy. You can force people to have children, but without security for the future, families won’t be happy.
The result is a paradox. The list of what is “not allowed” no longer fits on one page. And the list of what is “allowed” remains alarmingly short.
The government is offering us a fortress state: safe, quiet, and forbidden. But a fortress is a place for defense, not for living. Life needs roads, not barriers. We need factories, not fines. We need ideas, not prohibitions.
Currently, the only sector in the country that is truly developing and experiencing steady growth is the restrictions industry. And if this continues, we risk becoming the most developed country in the world in terms of the number of restrictions. But life in this “developed” world will become absolutely impossible.
Finally, I would like to present two texts that I came across while browsing Yaplakal, a popular Russian news and discussion forum.
Both texts are essentially conspiracy theories, but they illustrate the widespread disappointment and distrust of the government, which is completely ignored by the “very important and reputable Russia experts with direct and indirect links to the Russian government”.
The first text:
I visited my father today and started complaining over a cup of tea.
My father is at an age where he no longer needs the internet. But after listening to me for a while, he suddenly said, “Stop. You’re telling me about Prohibition and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Look at how it happened.”
He loves conspiracy theories.
“To destroy the Union, they started an unpopular war. It lasted a long time. During this time, the budget was exhausted and people became disillusioned with the army.”
“Then they started passing strange laws. They tightened the screws on parasitism, any form of dissent, and so on. This was meant to sow disillusionment with the government. And finally, they topped it all off with Prohibition. They ruined an entire industry where people worked and—most importantly—took away people’s ability to relax normally. People didn’t drink less afterward, but they started drinking anything they could get their hands on, secretly. They started imposing prison sentences for selling alcohol. People were going blind from counterfeit alcohol. Well, it’s just like your VPN situation, where people are willing to trust just anyone to bypass the restrictions.”
“And then, when distrust of the government reached its peak, when neither the people nor the army wanted such a government anymore, and everyone except them would have preferred it, a coup d’état took place. And mind you, it was almost bloodless. How much must they anger everyone before no one stands up for the country anymore?”
“And above all, all this was always done with the message that everything was being done for the people and the country. Mind you, it’s still the same thing. All to protect the people from the corrupting influence of Western vodka. You’ll see, they’ve done it before, now they’re just repeating it.”
Of course I laughed. Well, there are many coincidences. The years-long fraud, the empty budget, the idiotic laws and restrictions, the disillusionment of the people. There are certainly many coincidences, but it is just that: coincidence.
Or not? ((
The second text:
Conspiracy theory:
Given the tenacity with which Roskomnadzor is blocking Telegram and tightening its control over messaging apps, I conclude that we are misinterpreting events. The average citizen sees it as a fight against the opposition or spies. The opposition interprets it as a crackdown in the run-up to the elections.
But what if this is part of a larger plan? A global rebranding of power, initiated by those who will soon be leaving the political stage.
Let us consider the mechanism of a low barrier to entry for the future government. The scheme is cynical, but quite effective.
Phase: Creating problems. The current elite passes extremely unpopular laws.
We are seeing this right now – laws on blocking, mandatory biometrics, VPN bans, and three-year data retention.
The old regime acts as an authoritarian controller, depriving citizens of their usual tools.
The result is widespread dissatisfaction. People who were previously apolitical begin to perceive the state as a source of problems. A grandmother denied contact with her grandson experiences this negatively. Businesses that lose customers due to restrictions are ready to support any changes.
The old regime, consciously or unconsciously, creates hundreds of thousands of “silent protesters”.
The emergence of a critical mass of discontent: If instant messaging apps are eventually blocked, society will split into: 15% tech-savvy users who are able to circumvent the blocks (for them the situation is not critical); 85% of the population who feel cut off from their usual communication channels.
For these 85%, any future government that declares, “We’re putting an end to this nonsense. Here’s the ‘Activate Telegram’ button,” will automatically be seen as a savior. A low barrier to entry isn’t achieved by building something new, but by eliminating the negative consequences of past policies.
An analogy to the 1990s: Gorbachev’s “dry law” fueled hatred. Yeltsin won the people’s affection by, figuratively speaking, legalizing alcohol. It doesn’t matter that this had its downsides. Allowing the forbidden became the key to high approval ratings.
The “Savior” Phase: The arrival of a new government with a simple solution. Imagine: It’s 2026. Telegram has crashed, WhatsApp is unavailable. Communication has regressed to the level of 2005. Dissatisfaction is skyrocketing. And then a “technocrat” appears (his background is irrelevant). His program consists of two points:
- Repeal of all laws blocking instant messaging apps within 24 hours.
- Payment of bonuses to telecommunications operators for restoring data traffic.
What’s going on? The entire country, which until recently hated the “regime,” is greeting him with applause. The threshold for assuming power is minimal. He doesn’t need to understand any complex issues. He simply lifted the ban.
This is precisely the technique of a power transfer with a low threshold for legitimacy. The old regime exhausted the people with pointless restrictions to such an extent that anyone who lifts them is perceived as a benefactor.
What are the motives of the old regime? Why do they play the role of the “villain”? The most pressing question. Don’t they understand that they are working for the successor? Yes, they do. But they have limited options.
- Either they tighten their control, lose popularity, but gain time.
- Or they fail to intensify them and will be swept away in the near future, as instant messengers are used to coordinate protests.
They choose the lesser of two evils. And at the same time, they create the perfect “safety net” for their successor. That successor has probably already been chosen. He’s waiting. He already has a decree ready to “abolish digital oppression.”
We are outraged by the bans imposed by Roskomnadzor and the parliamentarians. But perhaps they are simply fulfilling their role and laying the foundation for the next political cycle.
The new government in Russia will have an easy start, not because of its own merits, but because of the actions of the previous one. A promise to “restore everything to the way it was” is enough, and the people will give it their full support.
So this opinion has prevailed – should I go to a mental institution, or is there some truth to it?
Perhaps?
