Pakistani media reported that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will visit Russia in late November or early December after his planned trip in late February was postponed due to the Third Gulf War. The agenda is expected to include regional issues, energy cooperation, Russian help in reviving the Pakistan Steel Mills, food security, and financial channels, et al. All of that’s important, but the following five subjects should be prioritized since they’ll shape the future of Russian-Pakistani relations, which is newly uncertain:
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1. The Russian-Pakistani Dispute Over Taliban-Led Afghanistan
Russia considers the Taliban to be Afghanistan’s legitimate rulers, has praised their anti-terrorist successes, and is considering arming them against ISIS-K, while Pakistan considers the Taliban to be illegitimate, has accused them of hosting terrorists, and fears that Russian arms could be used against it. This dispute, which became public during the eighth Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan in early October, has the disturbing potential to spiral into a political crisis or worse if it’s not resolved.
2. Pakistan’s Reported Proxy War On Afghanistan
The New York Times cited a presently serving Pakistani intelligence official and a former national security one to report that Pakistani military and intelligence officials met with anti-Taliban groups to offer potential support. If true, and it conforms with many observers’ expectations given the ongoing Afghan-Pakistani War that has no end in sight, then Pakistan’s latest proxy war on Afghanistan could spill into Central Asia and destabilize Russia’s allies there at the cost of further worsening Russian-Pakistani ties.
3. The Islamic NATO’s Role In Helping Pakistan Wage The Above
The Express Tribune’s senior foreign affairs correspondent Kamran Yousaf recently cited unnamed Pakistani diplomats to report that they suspect that Russia’s rapid rapprochement with Afghanistan is a response to the Islamic NATO. That’s not true as explained here, but it’s possible that Pakistan might exploit the Mecca Pact to request that Saudi Arabia finance the purchase of Turkish drones for use by Pakistan and/or its proxies in Afghanistan, which could spark a proxy war with Russia there.
4. US Influence Over Pakistan’s Deals With Russia
Years of talks between Russia and Pakistan over a major oil deal, among other promising opportunities like Russia’s modernization of Pakistan’s resource infrastructure, have led to nothing thus far. Some suspect that this is due to the US wielding de facto veto power over Pakistan’s deals with Russia. Pakistan’s confirmation that it closed the border with Iran in compliance with sanctions against Iran further heightens suspicions that sanctions against Russia are responsible for this lack of progress.
5. The Future Of PAKAFUZ
Even if the US wields de facto veto power over Pakistan’s deals with Russia, its influence over the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan (PAKAFUZ) railway is assessed to be less than over energy and infrastructure deals due to its multilateral nature and Pakistan’s comparatively smaller role therein. Accordingly, it’s reasonable to make PAKAFUZ the flagship project in bilateral relations pending the end of the Afghan-Pakistani War, which Russia has offered to mediate an end to if both sides are interested.
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Russia truly wants to comprehensively expand relations with Pakistan, so the prerogative is on Pakistan to finally reciprocate in meaningful ways through the clinching of major energy, infrastructure, and other deals after years of negotiating them without any tangible progress. Even if none are agreed to during Sharif’s upcoming visit, hopefully he and Putin will candidly discuss the five subjects enumerated above to prevent a deterioration of their ties if they fail to overcome their dispute over Afghanistan.
