It was warned last fall that “The US Plans To Wage An Intensified Proxy War Of Attrition Against Russia”, and now that Trump just signaled that he plans to “escalate to de-escalate” with Russia per the arms- and sanctions-related terms of the G7 joint statement that he signed, this might now begin to happen. As a reminder, the Wall Street Journal reported that this three-phase strategy involves helping Ukraine surpass Russia’s drone capabilities, more secondary sanctions, and provoking unrest inside of Russia.
Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes have targeted energy infrastructure in St. Petersburg, Moscow, and even Tyumen (the latter possibly by drones launched from Kazakhstan without Astana’s knowledge). Ukraine then hit an electronics plant in Voronezh and a satellite communications center in Moscow Region on Monday. Two days prior on Saturday, the Head of Crimea suspended fuel sales for everyone but the government, which highlighted the consequences of Ukraine’s “drone blockade” of Crimea.
The “war of attrition” that Ukraine is now waging against Russia through its strategic strikes on energy and other infrastructure is timed for September’s next Duma elections. United Russia might not maintain the 49.82% of the popular vote from the last elections in 2021, which could force them into a coalition with the communist or nationalist opposition depending on how high the protest vote is. Putin’s foreign foes believe that this would weaken Russia, instead of rejuvenate it, and want to help make this happen.
The aforesaid strikes are thus being paired with Zelensky’s ultimatum to Lukashenko to withdraw air defenses and drone relay stations from the border or Ukraine will do it for him. It was assessed here that Putin now has a chance to restore deterrence if Zelensky authorizes attacks against the 500 targets that one of his top drone commanders earlier claimed had been identified in Belarus. If deterrence is restored, then Russia might maintain the tempo to defeat Ukraine, thus swiftly ending the conflict.
If everything turns out differently, such as if deterrence isn’t restored by Russia after a large-scale Ukrainian attack against Belarus or no such attack occurs and the conflict drags on, then Trump’s “war of attrition” might really get going and begin systematically destroying all Russian targets one-by-one. Former top Russian spy Andrey Bezrukov recently admitted that “we were not prepared” for Starlink aiding strikes against critical infrastructure and advised maximally protecting all targets without delay.
That’s difficult to do with a country as large as Russia is, so if Trump “escalates to de-escalate” in a way that radically scales Ukraine’s strategic drone attacks, then Russia might be at a disadvantage where time would no longer be on its side like previously assumed by many in Moscow. Ukraine’s logistics are nowadays under NATO’s nuclear umbrella, so unless Russia risks World War III by striking them and gambling that no one (let alone the US) will retaliate, then it might face “death by a thousand cuts”.
The only reprieve, other than obliterating Ukraine to neutralize the NATO threats emanating from there once and for all per the special operation’s goal, would be for Russia to sell stakes in its natural resource and other critical industries to the US as a “security guarantee”. Knowing Trump, he’d likely demand that they be sold at pennies on the dollar and possibly include controlling shares, which would essentially cede Russia’s sovereignty. That’s why Russia must defeat Ukraine before his “war of attrition” really gets going.
