Pakistani Ambassador Faisal Niaz Tirmizi gave an interview to RT last week about his country’s role in mediating the US-Iranian talks. He began by celebrating that both sides were brought together for their first direct negotiations in 47 years and then described this as saving the world from a great catastrophe for the time being. If the conflict were to escalate, Tirmizi predicted, then the humanitarian consequences for everyone would be enormous due to the indefinite cutoff of Gulf oil and fertilizer.
A disaster at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant would also directly affect Pakistan as well as its six-million-large diaspora in the Gulf. Diplomacy isn’t an event, but a process, he said. The Korean, Vietnamese, and Afghan precedents show that sometimes talks can go on for years before a deal is agreed to. Prior to the ceasefire, Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s civilization, which Tirmizi said isn’t possible and revealed that Pakistan candidly told the US that it cannot win a war against Iran through an air campaign alone.
What Pakistan therefore sought to do was help the US and Iran discover the lowest common denominator of their shared interests in order to arrive at a ceasefire for averting such a catastrophe. Tirmizi hopes that the conflict won’t resume and believes that it’s relatively more difficult to do so after a ceasefire has already been agreed to. In connection with that, Pakistan is trying to organize a second round of talks, which Pakistani sources told Turkish media a few days later will likely be on Monday.
Reviewing what the Pakistani Ambassador shared with RT, it’s clear that his country played an important role in mediating between the US and Iran, which resulted in those two’s first direct negotiations in nearly half a century. What’s less clear, however, is the extent to which Pakistan helped them agree upon the terms of their ceasefire. It was earlier reported that China pressed Iran to agree to the ceasefire, which if true, would mean that China’s shadow role is more significant than Pakistan’s public one.
Another point to ponder is the role of the Pakistani-Saudi “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” in Islamabad’s eagerness to mediate between the US and Iran. Tirmizi wasn’t asked about that, but several days before his interview aired, Pakistan deployed some warplanes to Saudi Arabia. That preceded Saudi Arabia extending its $5 billion deposit in Pakistan and adding another $3 billion after the UAE demanded earlier this month that it finally repay the $3.5 billion that it was loaned in 2019.
It was assessed here that the quid pro quo might be Pakistan joining Saudi Arabia in attacking Iran if the war resumes, Trump executes his apocalyptic threat, and Iran responds by destroying the Gulf’s energy infrastructure like it threatened to do for deterrence purposes. Pakistan doesn’t want to wage war against Iran since its massive Shiite minority might revolt, but it also can’t ignore its alliance with Saudi Arabia either since Riyadh pulls its purse strings, ergo the eagerness to mediate to avert this dilemma.
Try as it might, however, Pakistani mediation might not resolve the latest US-Iran tiff over Hormuz as Iran recloses the strait amidst strong disagreements within its leadership over its Foreign Minister’s announcement that the strait was opened despite the US maintaining its blockade. This last-minute problem might delay the second round of talks in Islamabad on Monday that sources earlier reported. The next 24 hours are therefore crucial and could determine whether war returns or peace prevails.
