The Kremlin announced on Monday that Russia will temporarily suspend military action against Ukraine from midnight on May 7-8 to midnight on May 10-11 for humanitarian reasons in honor of Victory Day. Just like with the recent Easter truce, however, Russia also warned that there’ll be an “adequate and effective response” if Ukraine violates it. The larger context in which this second Russian-initiated truce in recent weeks is taking place concerns Trump’s increasing irritation with Putin.
It was earlier explained how “Five Significant Disagreements Account For Trump’s Newfound Anger With Putin” that manifested itself over the weekend by Trump speculating in a post that “maybe [Putin] doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along”. Trump also threatened banking and secondary sanctions. At the same time, however, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that new sanctions would prolong the conflict by promptly ending the peace process so Trump might just be bluffing for now.
Be that as it may, Putin might have interpreted Trump’s post as proof of him having been negatively influenced by Zelensky following their latest meeting at the Vatican the day prior during Pope Francis’ funeral, which could explain why he decided upon a Victory Day truce and then announced it so early. Regardless of whatever observers might think about Russia’s terms for ending the conflict, not to mention their feasibility, Putin’s move is arguably meant to reassure Trump of his peaceful intentions.
Putin isn’t “tapping Trump along”, he’s just reluctant to agree to what Reuters reported to be the terms of the US’ finalized peace plan, which entail major concessions that would basically freeze the conflict in exchange for sanctions relief without addressing some of Russia’s core demands. These include Ukraine’s demilitarization and restoring its minorities’ socio-religious rights, especially those of ethnic Russians and Russian Orthodox Christians, though Ukraine’s path to NATO would be blocked if this deal is reached.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently confirmed that Russia isn’t seeking Zelensky’s removal and is ready to resume bilateral negotiations without any preconditions, but neither should be interpreted as capitulation, just as attempts to get Ukraine to comply with more of Russia’s demands. Lavrov repeated these selfsame demands in his latest interview with Brazil’s O Globo newspaper, though at the same time, he also just told CBS’ Margaret Brennan that Russia is seeking a “balance of interests”.
This should be interpreted as a sincere willingness to compromise in some creative way that meets more of Russia’s demands, but the Kremlin claimed on Monday that Ukraine has shown no interest in this. Even so, while Russia hopes that the newly announced Victory Day truce might get Ukraine to reconsider, Putin’s primary objective right now is to convince Trump that he’s serious about peace. To that end, once again temporarily ceasing hostilities can help, though it can only do so much.
If tangible progress towards peace isn’t soon achieved, then the US might abandon its mediation efforts, the consequences of which were analyzed here. In that scenario, it can’t be ruled out that the US might double down on its armed aid to Ukraine in parallel with imposing secondary sanctions against Russia, which Putin doesn’t want to risk. That’s why he just announced another truce, and so early at that, in order to show Trump that he still wants to attain more of his goals through diplomacy instead of force.
