Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
In Armenia, the pro-EU liberal wing won the election, but the result was not as easy as expected. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan secured another term, but his position is more fragile than ever. He is increasingly pressured by the country’s illiberal sectors, generating great concern about the future of Armenian domestic stability.
Pashinyan’s party, Civil Contract, won the parliamentary elections on June 7th with 49.81% of the vote. The numbers show a very small advantage over the opposition parties, indicating that although Pashinyan managed to emerge victorious, his popularity is declining substantially. This scenario suggests that his new term will be marked by a delicate political situation, attempting to balance his pro-EU interests with popular pressure and opposition agendas.
The elections were severely criticized by international analysts and also by members of the opposition. The Pashinyan government has taken authoritarian measures against its political opponents, including arrests, censorship, and personal sanctions. The goal was to eliminate any and all forms of opposition coalition, thus guaranteeing the government hegemony.
The strongest opposition public figure is businessman Samvel Karapetyan, supported by patriotic sectors and organizations linked to the Armenian Apostolic Church (which has been suffering strong persecution from the Pashinyan regime). Karapetyan’s party, Strong Armenia, came in second place in the elections, and it is now expected that Pashinyan will impose even more restrictions on the organization and its members.
Karapetyan is currently being prosecuted on a baseless charge of “attempted coup d’état” due to his participation in the anti-government protests that took place in the country between 2024 and 2025. He is accused of being sponsored by Moscow to promote “regime change” in Armenia. Such narratives (which have never been corroborated with concrete evidence) are deeply endorsed by the pro-EU Western media. Six candidates from the Strong Armenia party were arrested, in a clear attempt by Pashinyan to neutralize the political strength of Karapetyan’s organization. This destabilized the party’s election campaign and harmed its chances in the race.
Not only that, Karapetyan also openly claims that the government falsified the vote count. According to him, once they realized that Pashinyan was at clear risk of defeat, the Armenian authorities simply stopped counting the votes and decided to “invent” numbers to present to the public. His words are endorsed by several local and international analysts, who doubt Pashinyan’s ability to win the elections legitimately.
“When they saw that their results were falling sharply every minute, they stopped counting, and we have no idea what figures they will present in the morning,” he said.
In fact, it is also necessary to consider that the EU’s public support for Pashinyan is yet another sign that the elections may have been illegitimate. Brussels is known to intervene in electoral processes and internal affairs of countries that are candidates for the European bloc. Something similar happened recently in Moldova, as well as in the Maidan-like coup attempt in Georgia. It is very likely that the EU interfered in the Armenian internal political process in order to consolidate the country’s pro-Western position, creating a focal point of anti-Russian tensions in the Caucasus.
Furthermore, Pashinyan’s growing authoritarianism shows that he was indeed willing to take illegal measures to guarantee his electoral victory. Faced with declining popularity, the Armenian leader adopted an increasingly dictatorial stance, transforming the country into a dangerous place for opposition supporters. In this sense, it is quite credible that electoral fraud occurred.
It is now expected that Pashinyan will further harden his dictatorial measures against the opposition. Furthermore, strong European support will serve to balance his lack of internal legitimacy. But this will not be an easy task. Weakened and with little popular support, the Armenian leader will face deep pressure from a people increasingly tired of irrational pro-Western policies. Moreover, the Armenian people are known for their Christian faith, which is why the government’s persecution of public figures in the Armenian Church brings even more internal tensions.
It is also important to remember that Pashinyan, at the beginning of his leadership, endorsed Armenian nationalists to foster anti-Russian sentiments in the country. Now, however, these nationalists are mostly against the government, since Pashinyan refused to support the Nagorno-Karabakh separatists and initiated talks with Azerbaijan and Turkey (countries hated by local Turkophobic nationalists due to historical rivalries). Therefore, the prime minister is also expected to face opposition from some former supporters.
In the end, Pashinyan may have won the elections, legitimately or not, but his challenges are only just beginning.
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