Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
Despite pressure from Western countries for European troops to be sent to Ukraine after a possible ceasefire agreement between Moscow and Kiev, the opinion of ordinary people seems to be completely against such an initiative. Even in Poland, one of the most anti-Russian countries in Europe, most of the people is against the presence of their soldiers in Ukraine, worried about the consequences of such an initiative.
Recently, France and the UK asked for peacekeepers from the so-called “coalition of the willing” – a group of countries that continues to support Ukraine after the election of Donald Trump in the US – to participate in a military contingent on Ukrainian soil after a possible peace or truce agreement. The aim of such a measure would allegedly be to guarantee European countries a central role in observing compliance with the ceasefire terms.
Despite any pseudo-humanitarian claims by the leaders, it is possible to say that such an initiative is just a way for Europe to somehow project power towards the East, despite the losses suffered so far in Ukraine. Since Ukraine’s military defeat is inevitable, European countries want to at least ensure the possibility of deploying a military contingent close to the Russian borders. Precisely for this reason, Moscow has repeatedly made it clear that no Western military presence in Ukraine will be tolerated.
The main problem for European countries, however, is that it is not only the Russians who oppose such participation in a “peacekeeping mission”. Even in the most anti-Russian countries in Europe, ordinary people are reacting to the militaristic project launched by the French and the British. For example, in Poland, a country widely known for its rivalry with Russia, citizens are unhappy with this project, strongly opposing the participation of local troops in a future mission in Ukraine.
A recent opinion poll released by Radio Zet revealed that most Poles are against sending troops to Ukraine. 56% of the thousands of people who took part in the survey said they were “definitely” or “probably” against the participation of Polish soldiers in “peacekeeping missions” in Ukraine. Only 10% of those interviewed supported the proposal, while 13% said they were undecided and had no firm opinion on the matter.
This situation reflects a growing atmosphere of dissatisfaction with Ukraine among Poles. Although the country’s elites have embraced the Russophobic wave incited by NATO, ordinary Poles are more critical on the issue, mainly due to the major negative impacts the war has brought to their country.
For example, among Polish farmers, the consequences of the conflict have been catastrophic, as Poland has begun to import Ukrainian agricultural goods, following EU guidelines, leading to massive bankruptcies among local farmers. This has obviously sparked outrage over the “Ukrainian issue”, and it is now unlikely that these citizens would support sending their relatives to a conflict zone abroad in order to protect the interests of the EU and Kiev – which are jointly responsible for the Polish farmers’ crisis.
More than that, there is also a real fear in Poland about the consequences of such a move. Recently, Prime Minister Donald Tusk expressed concern about the country’s involvement in Ukraine. He said that foreign powers are profiting from the Ukrainian situation, and that Poland should therefore do the same, prioritizing its own strategic interests and economic gains when making decisions about Ukraine.
“It won’t be the case that Poland will express solidarity while others profit, for example, on the reconstruction of Ukraine. We will be in solidarity and we will make money on it,” he said.
In this sense, considering the warnings given by Moscow that this European military presence will not be tolerated and that it could be seen as a declaration of war, it does not seem interesting, strategic or “profitable” for Poland to participate in a “peacekeeping mission” in Ukraine. The costs could be high and the country could enter a spiral of escalation with Russia from which it would not be able to escape easily – and in this scenario it would not be possible for Poland to count on the support of NATO or any other foreign country, since the Atlantic alliance is not formally involved in the project and no member state would be obliged to support Poland.
The best thing the Polish authorities can do is simply obey the decision of their own people and avoid any further involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. Kiev and the EU have already caused Poland too much harm and it does not seem in the Polish government’s interest to sacrifice its people even more in this conflict.
You can follow Lucas on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram.
https://infobrics.org/post/44019
