The end of communism saw Poland fatefully decide to join NATO, which was the bloc’s most meaningful eastward expansion given Poland’s centuries-long rivalry with Russia and its status as the most populous Warsaw Pact member outside the former USSR, thus reshaping the European order. Poland’s next strategic decision will be just as fateful, however, since the end of the Ukrainian Conflict will reshape the European order just as radically as the end of communism did.
Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domański declared during Monday’s fourth Polish-German Economic Forum that “Under no circumstances can there ever be a return to ‘business as usual’ with Russia. Poland will never agree to that.” What would ordinarily be discarded as a predictable platitude takes on strategic significance given the Washington Post’s report after the Russian-US diesel deal alleging that Trump envisages brokering a major Russian-EU-Ukrainian energy deal as part of a grand compromise.
If Poland adamantly refuses to participate in such an arrangement whereby the US might obtain partial stakes in the Polish-transiting Yamal gas pipeline as a “political safeguard” for resuming the export of Russian energy to the EU, then it would itself isolated from the emerging US-envisaged order. That’s because the US could foreseeably obtain such stakes in the German-terminating Nord Stream and/or the Ukrainian-transiting Brotherhood gas pipelines. Berlin and Kiev would therefore outmaneuver Warsaw.
Likewise, the Finnish and Norwegian members of the Viking Bloc that also includes Sweden (Denmark, Iceland, and the Baltic States can be considered either part of it or partnered with it depending on one’s views) just broke mainstream European NATO’s (E-NATO) political isolation of Russia by calling Putin. “The Arctic Front Of The ‘Cordon Sanitaire’ Is The Most Threatening To Russia”, but Central European front led by Poland is a close second since Poland now commands E-NATO’s largest army.
The Viking Bloc and Poland can jointly lead the Intermarium between Germany and Russia in the post-war European security architecture, which is what the US appears to prefer since it’s the most realistic, sustainable outcome of the Ukrainian Conflict that would thus free the US up to “Pivot to Asia”. For that to happen, however, Polish foreign policy must align with NATO’s American leader that’s organizing NATO 3.0 for the aforesaid purpose of having the bloc contain Russia so that the US can then contain China.
Poland can play a key role in the US’ envisaged post-war European order, but it’ll have to accept the energy-driven economic dimension thereof and resume dialogue with Russia (likely with the US’ mediation at first) for de-escalating Intermarium-Russian tensions. Poland could then become more important to Russia in the post-war order than Germany as proposed here, but if it rejects these pragmatic compromises, then it’ll become isolated and fall out of the US’ favor with all that would entail.
It’s therefore not an exaggeration to declare that Poland faces its most fateful strategic decision since the end of communism. It can either accept the economic, political, and security compromises tacitly expected of it by the US in order to play a key role in the post-war European order that Trump plans to build with Putin, or it can isolate itself while the Viking Bloc, Germany, and even Ukraine reap the benefits. The consequences of this decision will last decades so Poland must choose very carefully.
