The Governor of Svalbard, the Norwegian archipelago with special rights for several dozen countries that include Russia per its eponymous 1920 treaty, unexpectedly seized a Russian research vessel per Oslo’s orders to enforce an over $4 billion 2023 Hague ruling in support of Ukraine’s Naftogaz. This move followed Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declaring a new era of development in the Russian Arctic and warning about NATO threats to the region in an article that he published a few days prior.
It’s therefore likely a response to what he wrote and was almost certainly coordinated with NATO. This provocation was aimed at advancing several objectives. The first is to show that Russian ships can be seized by NATO countries in the Arctic, while the second is to expand the scope of those that can be seized to hypothetically include any vessel on the pretext of repaying Ukraine. Third, Ukraine is now emboldened to make more claims against Russia, after which NATO can then enforce them on its behalf.
Fourth, the optics of a NATO country seizing a Russian vessel in an Arctic area where Moscow legally enjoys special rights is meant to raise doubts among Russia’s partners about the viability of the Northern Sea Route, with the intent being to deter its use and associated foreign investments along this route. And finally, new Norwegian-Russian tensions can be exploited to justify a greater Norwegian military buildup, especially if Russia seizes (or attempts to seize) a Norwegian vessel as a tit-for-tat response.
As for the bigger picture, the artificial exacerbation of regional tensions through these means can spark closer coordination within the Viking Bloc, which refers to the sub-regional bloc within NATO between Scandinavia, Finland, and the Baltic States. It forms the northwestern flank of the new “cordon sanitaire” that’s taken shape around Russia over the past year. Poland, which envisages its own sphere of influence in Central & Eastern Europe, is expected to coordinate with the Viking Bloc to contain Russia in Europe.
The end result could be the fulfilment of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s proposal from mid-August for a Baltic sub-bloc within NATO through “a new alliance between Poland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and the Baltic states with the active participation of the British, Danes, and Germans.” Aspiring Viking Bloc leader Sweden already plans to deploy warplanes and warships to help Finland patrol its border with Russia so it might also expand the scope of this mission to include Norway and the Baltic States.
Seeing as how the Baltic States could also fall within Poland’s envisaged sphere of influence, Poland might deploy warplanes there as well in coordination with Sweden, thus turning those three countries into their de facto joint protectorates. To be sure, this process might not unfold right away, but the writing is arguably already on the wall. Slowly but surely, the northwestern and western flanks of the new “cordon sanitaire” around Russia are merging with British, French, and German backing.
While Norway’s seizure of that Russian research vessel in Svalbard might not catalyze a dramatic acceleration of the abovementioned process, it’s still expected to contribute to its development. Recalling that this move was totally unprovoked, it can therefore be expected that more such NATO provocations will be attempted against Russia in the Arctic, all with a view towards the aforesaid end. Russia must therefore prepare to respond otherwise its opponents will be emboldened to do even more.
