Polish President Karol Nawrocki gave a keynote speech at last month’s CPAC in which he presented Poland as Europe’s conservative champion. Readers who are interested in the rhetoric that he employed can read his speech here. Apart from predictable platitudes about freedom, democracy, and historical ties, he also condemned Russia, boasted about how Poland hosts US troops at its taxpayers’ expense, and referenced its self-assumed historical role as “the eastern guard of Europe, of Western civilization”.
All of this except perhaps his condemnation of Russia appeals to US conservatives. They probably also appreciated how he confirmed that Poland intends to remain within the EU, unlike what his liberal rival Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently fearmongered, but intends to reform it along the lines of what he detailed late last year in order to restore the sovereignty of its member states. Another part that they presumably liked was how he presented the “Three Seas Initiative” as a magnet for US investments.
His overall vision aligns with the European part of the US’ National Security Strategy and therefore endows Poland with a central role therein, the perception of which Nawrocki reaffirmed through his CPAC speech for three reasons. The first is domestic and relates to the need for the conservative opposition with which he’s aligned (he’s nominally an independent) to regain control over parliament during fall 2027’s next elections in order to most effectively execute these shared plans.
It’ll have to enter into a coalition with the populist-nationalist opposition parties Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP) and Confederation that polled third and fourth in a reputable survey last December at 11.18% and 10.67% compared to conservative Law & Justice’s (PiS) 31.21%. PiS’ Prime Minister candidate has tried to appeal to Confederation but ruled out working with KKP’s leader Grzegorz Braun, who’s embroiled in anti-Semitic scandals, though he didn’t exclude his party being part of a coalition.
PiS’ gray cardinal Jaroslaw Kaczynski earlier said that his party won’t work with Braun reportedly after the US Ambassador warned him that it wouldn’t support any government in which he’s involved. Braun might be electorally neutralized by then, however, after the European Parliament stripped him of immunity to face charges in Poland for denying Nazi crimes. In that event, the task before PiS would then be to court his voters or get them to support Confederation with whom a coalition is more palatable.
Trump 2.0’s interest in this outcome could result in pro-PiS and possibly even -Confederation statements by leading officials, perhaps including Trump himself closer to next fall’s parliamentary elections, and related campaigns on social media. PiS’ restored control over parliament might be even more important for the US than ever by then if Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is “democratically deposed” through this Sunday’s parliamentary elections in which the Europeans and Ukrainians are meddling.
It’s thus with that scenario in mind in spite of his meeting with Orban late last month to signal support for his re-election campaign that Nawrocki went all out at CPAC presenting Poland as Europe’s conservative champion so as to precondition American conservatives into perceiving him as Orban’s heir. Even if Orban wins, he might be further weakened at home and abroad, thus handicapping his ability to lead European conservatives, the role of which Nawrocki seemingly envisages himself then fulfilling.
The aforesaid calculations segue into the third reason why he sought to reaffirm Poland’s centrality to the European part of the US’ National Security Strategy and that’s to preemptively avert the AfD from playing that role instead. They’re the top party in Germany, the EU’s de facto leader, but they might never be allowed to rule due to the elite’s machinations that were described here, here, and here. Even if they did, however, two of their promised policies place them at serious odds with the US.
The first is relaunching Nord Stream, which would challenge the US’ emerging energy monopoly over Europe that’s poised to become one of its top levers of influence over the bloc, and the second is demanding the withdrawal of US troops. The latter is difficult to implement since EUCOM and AFRICOM are headquartered there and their infrastructure can’t easily be relocated. These policies explain why Nawrocki emphasized the Polish-US energy partnership and US troops in Poland in his speech.
The subtle purpose was to contrast Poland’s policies as they’re presently practiced with the AfD’s promised ones to reinforce his image as Europe’s conservative champion amidst the challenge posed by its two co-leaders. They represent a purer form of European conservatism compared to his blend of that and American conservatism. The geopolitical implications are self-evident seeing as how the AfD supports a truly sovereign Europe while PiS supports a Europe in de facto junior partnership with the US.
The US therefore naturally supports Nawrocki’s PiS allies over the AfD, and its Ambassador to Poland Tom Rose even went as far late last month as describing Poland as “the new great power of Europe, “the model Europe must follow”, and “the ideal ally of the United States.” Considering this, Nawrocki likely expects US support for PiS ahead of fall 2027’s next parliamentary elections, which he hopes will result in a share of Braun’s voters backing PiS or Confederation if he himself is electorally neutralized by then.
If Braun beats his case and isn’t disqualified or jailed, then he could become the kingmaker, thus leading to the dilemma over whether PiS should include him in a governing coalition at the risk of losing US support or if the US will flip-flop on its approach towards him to avoid another liberal government. If he loses, however, then he could become a political martyr and therefore obtain even more influence over the elections than ever before by directing his growing number loyal supporters who to vote for instead.
The challenge that Braun poses to the prospects of a future PiS-led governing coalition is expected to bedevil the party and its unofficial US patron from now till then, but if Nawrocki convincingly presents himself as Europe’s conservative champion in their eyes, then he can count on more US support. It remains to be seen what form it takes and whether it can surmount the aforesaid challenge, but in any case, what’s most important to him in the immediate future is that he’s seen by them as playing this role.
No matter the outcome of this month’s Hungarian parliamentary elections, Nawrocki wants himself to be perceived as the future of European conservativism over Orban. He and his PiS allies also don’t want the US placing its bets on the AfD instead. The AfD might be more appealing from a European conservative perspective, but PiS is more appealing from an American one, so US support for it and Poland as a whole is expected to grow across the next year and half till the next Polish parliamentary elections.
