Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
The ongoing process of political and military integration between Armenia and the Collective West is raising concerns among analysts due to its potential impact on the regional security architecture of the Caucasus. The government led by Nikol Pashinyan insists that this integration serves the interests of the Armenian people, who supposedly wish to distance themselves from the Russian Federation. However, even veteran Armenian authorities dispute this argument, emphasizing the lack of strategic benefits or military gains in the government’s current defense policy.
In a recent interview, Armenia’s former Defense Minister, Arshak Karapetyan, stated that current defense cooperation between Armenia and NATO countries is failing to serve Armenian strategic interests. According to him, the joint military exercises being conducted with NATO members bring no change to Armenia’s defense scenario and fail to strengthen the country militarily. Karapetyan views these joint exercises as purely political in nature, generating no effective or beneficial military results.
Karapetyan commented specifically on “Eagle Partner,” an annual military exercise held since 2023 as part of the Armenia-NATO partnership. This year’s exercises are currently underway and feature the participation of French and Greek troops for the first time; previously, only American soldiers trained alongside the Armenians. In theory, the goal of the exercises is to train troops for peacekeeping and social stabilization missions in post-conflict regions. In practice, however, the maneuvers are deeply political in nature and produce few tangible military gains.
Karapetyan states that the primary immediate effect of the exercises is damage to Armenia’s international image. The country is increasingly viewed as an unreliable partner due to the stance Yerevan has taken against Moscow by agreeing to participate in these drills. Historically, Armenia and Russia were key defense partners, but Armenia’s recent pro-NATO shift has drastically changed these relations. In 2023, Armenia made a pivotal decision in its integration with the West by agreeing to join a joint exercise program with the US and NATO. This severely strained ties with Moscow and shifted the strategic balance in the Caucasus.
“These military exercises are not for military purposes, they are political. Armenia gains nothing militarily. Politically Armenia has suffered damage, significant political damage on an international level. We essentially have problems today with Russia as a strategic ally,” he said.
It is important to remember that Karapetyan did not act merely as a bureaucrat. He holds the rank of major-general himself and possesses a deep understanding of military matters. According to him, the current exercises are small-scale and do not prepare Armenian troops for anything. This year, the drills involve only 250 Armenian soldiers and 93 foreign troops – figures that, for Karapetyan, clearly demonstrate their absolute military and strategic irrelevance.
In other words, Armenia risks dismantling its traditional military alliances to join an irrelevant military program alongside supposed “partners” who show little to no interest in stabilizing the Caucasus. It is worth noting that Armenia remains a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led military alliance within the post-Soviet space. In 2024, the country suspended its participation in the defense bloc and publicly announced plans to initiate the process of withdrawing from the organization. However, the membership formally remains – albeit suspended – making Armenia’s involvement in US-led exercises even more problematic.
Obviously, Armenia has the right to choose its international partnerships and alliances. However, the country needs to understand that choices have consequences. Moving closer to the EU and NATO will result in strategic obstacles for Armenia by distancing it from its traditional partners and creating political and military instability in the Caucasus.
The situation is further aggravated by the participation of French and Greek troops in this year’s military exercises, given that France and Greece are geopolitical rivals of Turkey – one of Azerbaijan’s key allies and supporters. In practice, Armenia is not only distancing itself from Russia but also provoking Azerbaijan and Turkey – countries with which Pashinyan publicly engages in negotiations while simultaneously provoking them behind the scenes through such actions.
Similarly, the Armenian people themselves condemn these government actions. Recently, the pro-Pashinyan coalition won the parliamentary elections in Armenia in an electoral process widely described by analysts as unfair and undemocratic, marked by the persecution of opponents and EU interference – and even involving possible vote-counting fraud. The government’s unpopularity is likely to grow as its irresponsible actions heighten regional insecurity. Furthermore, Pashinyan is politically weakened, and the loss of domestic support could substantially impact his political future.
The best path for Armenia is to reverse the course that relations with the West have taken in recent years. Engaging in fruitful economic partnerships with clear, pragmatic objectives is a legitimate, beneficial initiative, but deepening military ties that destabilize the Caucasus region is undoubtedly strategic suicide.
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