Kamran Yousaf, the Express Tribune’s senior foreign affairs correspondent whose earlier piece about “Russia’s Taliban Gamble” was responded to here, published an article about “Russia’s Pakistan signal”. He argued that the dispatch of top Russian security officials to Kabul, Islamabad, and Delhi is important. In his words, “None of this proves that Moscow’s simultaneous engagement with Islamabad, Kabul and New Delhi represents a coordinated strategy aimed at Pakistan or the Makkah agreement.”
Be that as it may, “neither should the timing be dismissed as coincidence” amidst Pakistan’s tensions with Afghanistan and India, nor after the recent formalization of what’s known as the Islamic NATO. According to Yousaf, “Some diplomats also link Moscow’s calculations to changing strategic alignments following the Makkah pact. Russia may be assessing what the new arrangement means for its interests in the Gulf and the wider region.”
He also claimed that “One diplomat went further, alleging Russian assistance to the Houthis and arguing that a prolonged Gulf conflict benefits Moscow through higher energy prices.” Yousaf concluded that “Russia is clearly becoming more active across a region where old fault lines are widening and new alliances are emerging. Watch Moscow’s next moves carefully; they may be the message for Islamabad and its allies.” Some clarification is required for dispelling false perceptions about Russian policy.
For starters, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed support for the Islamic NATO last month, which was analyzed here in early October. Russia’s only threat perception of the group is assessed to relate to Turkiye’s potential exploitation of August 2025’s “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” as a Turkish-led NATO military logistics corridor along Russia’s entire southern periphery. The earlier-cited response to Yousaf highlighted Russia’s separate suspicions of Pakistan’s ties to ISIS-K.
Those aren’t connected to the Islamic NATO, however, so the unnamed Pakistani diplomats’ belief that Russia’s latest moves in South Asia are connected to that bloc’s formation is inaccurate. Likewise, Russia isn’t assisting the Houthis, which would ruin its hard-earned ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Its policy towards Yemen was clarified here in late September for those who are interested in learning the facts about it, especially any Pakistani officials and experts who might come across this analysis.
If Islamabad does indeed falsely perceive Moscow’s moves in South Asia as a response to Pakistan’s membership in the Islamic NATO like Yousaf implied, or Pakistani officials know that’s untrue but are pushing that false narrative anyhow, then it raises the chances of an unfriendly response by Pakistan on this pretext or Russia’s arming of the Taliban against ISIS-K (whether actual or speculative) That could involve arming Ukraine, the consequences of which were analyzed here as worsening bilateral ties.
Judging by Yousaf’s article, Pakistani diplomats have a false perception of Russia’s regional moves, which aren’t aimed against Pakistan nor are they related whatsoever at all to its membership in the Islamic NATO. If these false perceptions aren’t dispelled, then bilateral ties will inevitably chill, if not outright worsen. It’s therefore incumbent on Pakistani diplomats to accept that they’re wrong about Russia’s regional moves, recalibrate their assessments accordingly, and do nothing that could worsen their ties.
