MAGA’s walloping during the latest midterms inspired the assessment that “Trump’s Legacy Will Ultimately Be Determined By The Outcome Of The Third Gulf War” seeing as how its catastrophic impact on Americans’ cost of living is considered to be the primary reason for the Democrats’ landslide. Vice President JD Vance then published a post on X citing an unnamed pollster who arrived at the same conclusion ahead of the vote. Trump later said that “He was right” when asked about this by the press.
Less than a week later after meeting with the Qatari Prime Minister at the White House, Trump declared that “Iran militarily is effectively over”, meaning that the military phase of the conflict is just about over. He added that “We’re just keeping it the status quo. And we’re doing that really at the behest of countries that are their neighbors”, thus confirming this widely held interpretation. While that could change, whether due to his capriciousness or Iran reinitiating hostilities at scale, it also might not.
One reason for observers’ cautious optimism that he’s serious about ending the conflict is the Wall Street Journal’s recent report that “President Trump has told top aides and counterparts he’s open to Vance restarting talks with Iran and has empowered him to negotiate.” For background, Vance reportedly sent a letter to Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei last month requesting a meeting, and “Doha has been considered as a possible venue” according to the report.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials like Secretary of War Pete Hegseth believe that the way forward rests with maintaining pressure on Iran, not cutting a deal with it, so it’s important that Trump reportedly endorsed Vance’s proposed talks with Rezaei in pursuit of a compromise. This shows that he’s not bending to pressure from some on his side to indefinitely perpetuate the conflict, let alone reinitiate hostilities at scale, or at least not yet. A deal of some sort is therefore possible at this time.
As was proposed here, “the US could lift its energy-related sanctions, withdraw its forces from the Gulf (which would be replaced by the Islamic NATO’s), and commit to not intervene in Israel’s support if Israel initiates another war with Iran.” Iran’s highly enriched uranium might also be sent to Russia for storage per Moscow’s long-standing proposal, though Tehran might not agree unless Moscow modernizes its armed forces as a deterrent, which Washington might not object to as part of a grand deal with Russia.
Whatever form it may take, the salience is that the Wall Street Journal’s report suggests that Trump is serious about ending the Third Gulf War through a series of compromises that Vance could have the authority to hash out with Rezaei, which would free him up to focus on his domestic America First agenda ahead of the 2028 elections. His reported “shouting match from hell” with Netanyahu over Iran the other day lends credence to this observation. Trump might even end the war just to spite him.
It’s premature to predict that he’ll do so, let alone exactly what a compromise with Iran could entail, but the insight that was shared in this analysis as inspired by the credible reports that were cited suggest that he’s leaning in that direction at the present moment at least. In the event that the war ends this way sooner rather than later, it would mean that Trump resisted tremendous internal and Israeli pressure, which would raise his supporters hopes about what he might do next at home and abroad.
