To support Tehran, the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels could block the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea. This would be another asymmetric response by the Iranians to US attacks.
By Alex Männer
The conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel is escalating further and drawing in new actors from the Gulf region. As recent events demonstrate, Tehran has been receiving military support for several days now from the so-called Houthi movement in Yemen, in the south of the Arabian Peninsula.
The Yemeni Houthis, who have been fighting for their Shiite faith for more than 20 years and now control large provinces in the west of the war-torn country, are widely considered “proxies” of Iran. They are ideologically and politically closely linked to Iran and, with its support, have successfully resisted Saudi Arabian intervention in recent years. They also act primarily with Tehran’s support in many other matters, consistently strengthening Iranian interests.
Iran, on the other hand, has fought against the American and Israeli war machine virtually without foreign assistance. (Especially since the Arab countries in the region have, as expected, either sided with Washington or remained neutral.) However, with the entry of the Yemeni Houthis into the war, the balance of power in this conflict could shift significantly.
In response to the Israeli-American airstrikes on Iran, the Houthi rebels had already announced in early March their intention to take action against the United States, Israel, and their allies. This came to pass at the end of March. As reported by the media, Houthi militia units began attacking Israel with rockets and drones last Monday. Since then, there have been numerous airstrikes against the Israelis, including ballistic missiles fired at targets in the Tel Aviv area.
High-ranking Houthi representatives, however, point out that these attacks were only a first step. They would only strike with full force if “the aggression against Iran and Lebanon escalates significantly” and one of the Gulf states were to participate in this aggression. This is stated, among other things, in a declaration by the Houthi deputy information minister on April 2nd. In retaliation, the rebels would block the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait on the Yemeni coast, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and forms the southern gateway to the Suez Canal.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait is approximately 30 kilometers wide and of immense importance, especially for trade between Asia and Europe. Around 20,000 ships are said to pass through this strait annually – representing roughly 30 percent of global container traffic and about ten percent of oil trade.
Severely restricted shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, or even a complete blockage of this transport route, would force shipping companies to take an expensive detour around the Cape of Good Hope. This would also increase travel time and severely disrupt global supply chains, potentially causing them to grind to a halt. The consequences for the entire global economy would be catastrophic.
The Houthis demonstrated two and a half years ago that a blockade is indeed possible. In November 2023, in response to the Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip, they carried out attacks against Israeli and Israeli-affiliated merchant ships in the Red Sea, severely restricting shipping in the region. It is likely that shipping was not brought to a complete standstill at that time because, among other things, the Houthis refrained from targeting ships carrying oil or liquefied natural gas.
Thus, Houthi attacks in the Bab al-Mandab Strait would be yet another effective asymmetric response by Tehran to the massive airstrikes by the US and Israel. Possibly just as effective as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has already led to a global energy crisis. This is primarily due to the restriction of raw material shipments from the Middle East and the resulting energy shortage, as well as the sharp rise in global oil and gas prices.
