By Tyler Durden
Summary
- President Pezeshkian: ready to end the war under the guarantee that there will be no further attacks.
- IRGC warns of attacks on 18 US technology companies in the region, says Siemens in Israel has already been attacked.
- China and Pakistan publish comprehensive five-point framework for peace (document below); France and Italy begin closing their airspace to Iran-related US operations.
- Defense Minister Hegseth considered “the coming days crucial,” saying that attacks would continue without an agreement – he spoke of a “collapsing regime.”
- President Trump signals withdrawal, urges the world to “get its own oil,” says Iran is “decimated.” He tells the NYP the strait could be “opened automatically.”
- Isfahan, home to much of Iran’s enriched uranium and a sprawling “rocket city”, was heavily hit overnight by US 2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs.
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Iran’s foreign minister clarifies: No negotiations with the US, but messages have been conveyed.
Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi clarified several points regarding diplomatic contacts with the US about a possible end to the war in an interview with Al Jazeera. The most important point is his statement that what is currently happening, from Tehran’s perspective, does not constitute negotiations, but rather an exchange of messages, either directly or through our friends in the region (namely Pakistan).
He said that all communication regarding diplomacy and the war is channeled through the Foreign Ministry and overseen by the National Security Council. He stated that Iran had neither responded to reported US proposals nor made any of its own, emphasizing that no decision had been made regarding talks. Instead of a ceasefire, Iran is demanding a complete regional end to the war, as well as guarantees against future attacks and compensation for damages.
Aragchi emphasized that Iran is acting defensively, not instigating a conflict, and targeting only US objectives – not its regional allies per se. The Strait of Hormuz will remain open for friendly ships, but could be restricted for adversaries, he continued. While Iran warns that it is prepared for escalation, it also acknowledges that tensions with neighboring countries could increase, but believes that trust can ultimately be restored.
Oil price plunges after Iranian initiative
A major headline caused the oil price to plummet…
Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that Iran was ready to end the war if it received appropriate guarantees.
According to the state broadcaster PressTV, Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that Iran does not seek war, but is prepared to end it if guarantees against further attacks are given:
- • The military aggression by the US and Israel against Iran is an unprecedented crime and a blatant violation of international law.
- • Iran held talks with the US in good faith, but was illegally attacked in the middle of negotiations – proving that the US rejects diplomacy.
- • The neighboring countries where US bases are located have failed to prevent their territory from being used for attacks on Iran.
- • The solution is an end to the aggression; Iran does not seek war, but is prepared to end it provided guarantees are given against further attacks.
- • Europe should abandon its destructive approach and cooperate with Iran professionally and in accordance with international law.
A key question will be whether this could create a rift between the IRGC and the civilian government regarding the long-term viability of this peace initiative. Furthermore, both the US and Israel would need to agree to halt the ongoing airstrikes, but it is far from certain that the Netanyahu government would agree to a ceasefire, as many believe Israel’s objectives are far more ambitious and aim for the complete collapse of the regime.
Trump: The Strait of Hormuz will “open automatically” (?)
“If we withdraw, the road will automatically open,” President Trump told the New York Post on Tuesday when asked if he was considering ending measures against Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
“Well, I think it will open automatically, but my attitude is: I have destroyed the country. They no longer have the power, and the countries that use the strait should go and open it… because I imagine that whoever controls the oil will be very happy to open the strait,” Trump continued. “But we don’t have to stay there much longer—we still have more to do to destroy their offensive capability, whatever offensive capabilities they may still have.”
Dave DeCamp of AntiWar.com points to a certain circularity and the sad reality of where the situation currently stands: “The goal of the war has become to fix a problem that did not exist before the war.“
IRGC threatens US tech companies in the region
The IRGC has reportedly threatened to target the operations of 18 US technology companies in the Middle East starting Wednesday evening. It warned of this escalation should further high-ranking military commanders or government leaders be assassinated. The companies named in a statement include Apple, Google, Tesla, Microsoft, Intel, Oracle, IBM, Meta, Nvidia, Boeing, and others.
This may have already begun as part of the ongoing Iranian bombing campaign against Israel – although ballistic missiles are reportedly being fired less frequently compared to the early weeks of the war. Newsquawk: “The Iranian army says it has targeted the Siemens and AT&T industries in Ben Gurion and Haifa.” Confirmed in state media (based on recent reports, the companies mentioned are Cisco, HP, Intel, Oracle, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta, IBM, Dell, Palantir, NVIDIA, JPMorgan, Tesla, General Electric, Spire Solutions, G42, and Boeing).
Translation of “X”: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued a warning to 18 American technology companies, including Microsoft, Apple, Google, Intel and Boeing, stating that they are considered legitimate targets in retaliation for the terrorist operations carried out by the US and Israel.
The US claims: Iran is disintegrating, numerous high-level desertions.
Among Hegseth’s earlier statements that we believe indicate preparations for an “exit” is his claim that the massive US attacks on Iran are causing the regime to collapse and significantly weakening the morale of the authorities in Tehran.
“Our attacks are undermining the morale of the Iranian military, leading to widespread desertion, a shortage of key personnel, and frustration among senior leaders,” Hegseth said at the morning press conference at the Pentagon on Tuesday. General Caine added, “The combined forces continue to weaken and destroy Iran’s ability to exert power and threaten stability beyond its borders.” President Trump echoed the sentiments expressed to the NYP that he did not expect the war to last much longer, telling Americans they could expect an end “soon”—a repetition of similar remarks from last week.
France and Italy are closing their airspace to some US aircraft operating in Iran.
France has reportedly denied the United States access to its airspace for transporting weapons for the Iran conflict—the first such refusal since the start of the war, according to Reuters. This follows a similar move by Spain and signals growing reluctance and concern among key European allies to support US military logistics. Meanwhile, Italy has denied certain US aircraft access to an airbase in Sicily, although officials there insist the problem stems from procedural errors, specifically the Pentagon’s failure to obtain proper authorization before requesting landing permission.
Italian officials emphasize that all applications must comply with existing agreements and legal frameworks, which require case-by-case approval and, in some cases, parliamentary oversight. This legal stance offers the Meloni government a way to limit participation (and thus the domestic political repercussions among the largely anti-war youth) while maintaining formal cooperation, even as domestic opposition to the conflict and concerns about US interventionism continue to grow.
China and Pakistan publish 5-point peace framework
China and Pakistan on Tuesday released a five-point initiative to restore peace in the Gulf and the Middle East, following talks in Beijing between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistani Vice Premier and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar. These countries have taken the lead, with Islamabad hosting the shuttle diplomacy – after Egypt and Turkey also sent their top diplomats to a summit on Sunday. In short, the initiative is structured around these five points and headings, outlining a general path toward a ceasefire in the Iran conflict and a lasting peace:
- I. Immediate cessation of hostilities: China and Pakistan call for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the greatest possible efforts to prevent an escalation of the conflict.
- II. Peace talks should begin as soon as possible.
- III. Security of non-military targets.
- IV. Security of sea lanes.
- V. Primacy of the Charter of the United Nations.
It is noteworthy that the document contains nothing about the “denuclearization” of Iran or anything that might indicate potential strategic goals of the US and Israel; instead, the proposed starting point is quite vague and broad. This comes at a time when the US has signaled that it could be open to a way out or a peace agreement even if the Strait of Hormuz remains de facto under Iranian control. Here is the document, published by the official social media channels of the Pakistani Foreign Ministry:
Defense Minister Hegeseth says: “The coming days will be crucial,” “the morale of the Iranian military is weakening.”
While not quite a “mission accomplished,” Defense Secretary Hegzeth’s remarks definitely reflected the courage and completion of the “systematic destruction” of Iran’s military capabilities. Hegzeth said he visited U.S. troops involved in operations against Iran over the weekend and described a campaign intensifying as American firepower increases and Iran’s capabilities decline.
He emphasized that “the coming days will be crucial,” acknowledged that Iran was expected to continue launching missiles, but added: “We will shoot down incoming threats.” According to Hegseth, continued US attacks not only weaken military resources but also “damage the morale of the Iranian military” and trigger “widespread desertion within the Iranian military.” And one more important point:
” We would very much welcome an agreement. If Iran were prepared to relinquish its resources and ambitions and open the strait, that would be fantastic. That is the goal. We don’t want to have to do more militarily than is absolutely necessary.”
He went even further, claiming that “a regime change has taken place in Iran,” but warned that Washington would continue its actions if Tehran refused to reach an agreement. “If Iran is not prepared to reach an agreement, the US will continue,” he said, adding that without an agreement, the attacks would continue “with greater intensity.”
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Is there a way out? Trump is urging the world to get its oil through the Strait of Gibraltar after he has “destroyed” Iran.
There has been much speculation that the White House is working to find a moment to declare “mission accomplished” because “any way out is fair” to avoid a potentially costly quagmire through the use of ground troops – and we may be witnessing the beginning of such a quagmire.
After comments apparently leaked overnight to The Wall Street Journal indicating that Trump was prepared to leave Iran without opening the strait, the president made his position very clear this morning.
President Trump posted on social media this morning, clearly signaling that he is on the path to retreat:
To all those countries that cannot obtain aviation fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, such as the United Kingdom, which refused to participate in the “decapitation” of Iran, I have a suggestion:
First: Buy from the USA, we have plenty of it, and
Secondly: Summon your somewhat belated courage, go to the Strait of Hormuz and simply take it.
You need to start learning how to fight for yourselves; the USA will no longer be there to help you, just as you weren’t there for us.
Iran was essentially decimated.
The hard part is over. Get your own oil!
President DJT
The reaction was a drop in the price of oil…
…and stock prices rise…
Neither of these things is particularly dramatic – as traders are still reacting nervously to Trump’s statements – but as Rich Privorotsky of Goldman Sachs noted overnight (in a commentary that almost seemed to anticipate Trump’s tweet), a downward movement is emerging:
After about five weeks of conflict, “President Trump told his advisors he was prepared to end the US military action against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed” (WSJ).
Politically chaotic (especially in the Gulf Cooperation Council… less so domestically), but probably the least bad way in the short term (it could get worse in the long term).
A press conference by the Department of Defense will take place at 8 a.m. EST.
During the night there was a significant escalation… Iran attacked a heavily laden oil tanker in the port of Dubai… a very clear signal regarding the control of shipping.
Probably in response to US measures surrounding the nuclear facilities in Isfahan
(Trump posted a video without a caption of a large explosion on his Truth Social 5 hours ago).
The most optimistic short-term scenario would be an announcement along the lines of “Mission accomplished” …
This means that nuclear capabilities would be significantly set back (say by 10-20 years), which would allow the US to withdraw.
There’s no advantage here; honestly, anything could happen, but I’ll keep an eye on developments.
…
The decisive factor remains the strait.
If the US takes a break while Iran maintains a certain level of disruption, the pressure will reverse… China, Korea, Japan, India, Europe and the GCC states will all receive a direct incentive to restart the flow of goods.
Even partial restrictions (e.g. for US/Israeli ships) are manageable… a unilateral victory could actually get the flow of goods moving again and shift the pressure to the rest of the world to make the strait navigable again.
2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs severely damaged Isfahan overnight.
Videos and reports from the region have made it clear that the central Iranian city of Isfahan was severely damaged in the recent US-Israeli attacks. A large ammunition depot and other “militarily significant” targets were attacked with 2,000-pound bunker busters. Isfahan is the third-largest city in the Islamic Republic and is believed to house the majority of the country’s highly enriched uranium, as well as a sprawling missile base.
The Wall Street Journal reported that an attack on a large ammunition depot involved the use of “a large quantity of bunker buster or penetrator ammunition,” resulting in massive fireballs.
Over the course of the month-long war, US forces have hit more than 11,000 targets, focusing primarily on weakening Iran’s missile and drone facilities, as well as its nuclear energy and development facilities.
CBC wrote: “The attacks were a testament to the intensity of the month-long war waged by the US and Israel against Iran, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggesting in an interview that Israel had achieved more than half of its war aims.”
The violent explosions during the night were recorded many times and could be seen for miles around:
“Isfahan is one of the three sites attacked by the U.S. military last year. NASA fire-monitoring satellites indicate that explosions occurred in a mountainous region on the southern edge of the city,” the report continues, noting that Iran has not yet confirmed the attack. President Trump previously warned on Truth Social: “Great progress has been made, but if for any reason an agreement is not reached soon—which is likely to be the case—and if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately ‘opened to traffic,’ we will end our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island (and possibly all of their desalination plants!) that we have deliberately left untouched.”
Regarding the weapon used, “bunker buster” refers to a class of bombs designed to penetrate deep below the surface—specifically through rock, soil, or reinforced concrete—before detonating. The technology was refined and widely used by the US during the 1991 Gulf War.
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