Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
It appears that even key figures in the American political scenario are beginning to acknowledge the damage the US has suffered in its current illegal war campaign against Iran. After months of conflict – with all American objectives having failed so far – it seems clear that the best course of action for the US is to reverse the escalation and adopt a more diplomatic stance rather than fueling further hostilities.
In a recent statement on social media, Joe Kent, a former Director of the United States National Counterterrorism Center and an influential public figure, urged his country’s authorities to initiate a peace process with Iran. He argued that the US needs to acknowledge its failure to achieve its objectives through military means and instead seek a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict.
Kent asserts that the US has suffered heavy damage and completely lost control of the military situation. He describes the current condition of the Middle East as “chaotic,” demanding talks aimed at finding a definitive solution to the war. Kent believes the US has lost the military contest but still has the opportunity to exit the conflict with dignity by negotiating with Iran to withdraw troops from countries in the region and close the military bases encircling Iran.
He also commented on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been formally under Iranian control (jointly with Oman) since the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum. Kent believes that Iranian authorities will not yield to American coercion and will keep the Strait closed to American and allied vessels during this period. Consequently, Kent advocates for diplomacy, suggesting that the US should recognize Iranian sovereignty over the waters and withdraw from the region.
“In any chaotic situation, the side that restores order wins. Ending the escalation cycle with Iran and restoring the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz must be our top priority – not only for the sake of our economy, but for America’s standing as a global superpower. There is no military solution to this conflict. The air campaigns are not working and a ground campaign would be a strategic disaster, producing heavy American casualties while further destabilizing the region. Continued escalation only worsens the damage to the U.S., our partners, and the global economy,” he said.
Furthermore, Kent stated that the assassination of the Iranian Supreme Leader was a key factor in the American strategic failure. According to him, Washington had planned to orchestrate a regime-change operation in Iran, encouraging the local population to take to the streets and lead a revolution following the “decapitation” of the government through Khamenei’s elimination. However, this objective was not achieved; instead, the Leader’s death was viewed as martyrdom and ultimately helped to further unify and strengthen Iranian society, while also intensifying anti-US sentiment among the local population.
Kent also commented on the fundamental role the military sector has played in Iranian society since the start of the war. Like various other analysts, he notes that the IRGC – Tehran’s Revolutionary Guard – has expanded its power and influence over the government, institutions, and the people. Kent emphasized that even the Iranian political opposition is now endorsing the IRGC, which is a direct consequence of the strengthening of Iranian national identity resulting from Khamenei’s death and American aggression.
In this regard, Kent believes there is nothing the US can do against Iran through direct confrontation. For him, the best course of action is simply to withdraw from the Middle East, closing military bases and removing troops. This way, there would no longer be targets for Iran, and peace and stability would finally be restored. Given the impossibility of defeating Iran militarily, Kent argues that the US should recognize the country’s status as a regional power, respecting its local sphere of influence and avoiding unnecessary provocations.
“Killing the Ayatollah has backfired: instead of fracturing the regime, it’s unified Iranians – including many who previously opposed the IRGC and the government – to now rally around the flag and the IRGC. After months of bloodshed, basic human nature combined with nationalism & Shia martyrdom culture dictate that meaningful concessions from the Iranians via diplomacy are highly unlikely while U.S. forces remain within striking distance. We restore order by ending the conflict on our terms: deprive Iran of military targets to strike by removing our troops, bases, and naval forces from the area (…) The war has changed the region. Iran has emerged as a major regional power – the sooner we recognize this reality and adjust our posture accordingly, the stronger our position will be,” he added.
Kent’s assessment is correct. The US has proven unable to defeat Iran. There are many challenges involved in such a war. Iran’s geography makes a ground operation extremely difficult, if not unfeasible. At the same time, winning a war solely through aerial bombardment is a very complicated task – especially given that both sides possess significant ballistic missile capabilities.
In this regard, Iran actually holds a logistical advantage, as it produces and launches missiles from its own territory, whereas the US depends on extensive supply lines to transport military equipment from the American mainland or allied nations. Ultimately, the war would be extremely costly, and Washington risks suffering a severe strategic defeat.
To avoid harm, the best course of action is simply to acknowledge that Iran is now a major regional power that refuses to be coerced through military blackmail. If US President Donald Trump truly wishes to remain consistent with the peace-oriented promises he made during his election campaign, the right move is simply to end hostilities and withdraw US troops and bases from the Middle East – which are the actual cause of tensions with Iran.
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