June 13, 2025 – In the middle of the night, Israel carried out precision airstrikes on targets in the Iranian capital, Tehran. The military escalation caused serious disruptions in world markets – and may be just the beginning of a much larger conflict.
Israel attacks – but not without support
Israel declared the attacks self-defense. Nuclear facilities, missile platforms, and command centers in the Tehran metropolitan area were reportedly hit. But the notion that Israel acted entirely independently is an illusion. Without the logistical, intelligence, and political support of the United States, such an attack would be hardly conceivable. The region surrounding Iran is littered with U.S. military bases—in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, and Turkey. Anyone who attacks a country like Iran does so under the cover of—or even through—that infrastructure.
US Senator Marco Rubio tried to emphasize that the US was not involved, but this claim seems half-hearted at best: Washington was informed in advance, and consent often means acquiescence in a geopolitical context.
Financial markets in shock
The market reaction was fierce and unequivocal. Fears of regional war triggered a flight to safe havens:
- US stock futures prices fell as much as 1.7 percent.
- The price of gold rose above $3,400 per ounce.
- The price of oil rose by as much as eight percent.
- Government bonds and classic crisis currencies, such as the yen, rose significantly.
Market movements indicate one thing: the financial world is waiting for a possible escalation of the conflict.
What next?
Tehran has yet to publicly respond to the attack – but it is likely only a matter of time. The possible scenarios are worrying:
- Retaliation with rocket attacks against Israel – directly or through intermediaries, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or militias in Iraq.
- Attacks on US military bases in the region.
- Sabotage attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia or in the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most important crude oil transportation routes.
- Cyberwar with reciprocal attacks on energy and communication networks.
- Mobilization of other regional powers – with the risk of a local conflict escalating into a major conflagration.
Geopolitical turning point
The attack comes at a sensitive time: fresh diplomatic attempts to restart nuclear talks over Oman had just begun. They have become obsolete in an instant. Russia and China are watching developments closely – both have close economic and security ties with Tehran. If Iran were to retaliate massively, the international alliance system could be put to a dangerous test.
Summary
Israel not only bombed Tehran, it also ignited a geopolitical powder keg. Without the enormous support of the United States, this attack would hardly have been possible. The narrative of an “isolated defensive strike” is politically useful but militarily acceptable.
What now threatens is more than just a regional incident: it is the possible beginning of an escalating Middle East war with global economic consequences – for energy prices, inflation, supply routes, and the global security architecture.
A single moment – and the entire Middle East is on the verge of upheaval.
