A Russian pollster recently discovered that “More Russians Perceive Poland To Be An Enemy Than They Do Any Other Country”, yet it turns out that their country’s top adversary in Europe is actually France, which plans to carry out regular nuclear drills with Poland aimed against Russia and Belarus. Per Polish media, “French nuclear warheads will not be permanently deployed in Poland, but they will periodically be deployed under Rafale aircraft, which will participate in joint exercises with the Polish Air Force.”
Specifically, “Polish aircraft will identify targets that, if necessary, can be attacked by French aircraft equipped with nuclear-tipped missiles…[Polish cruise] missiles are hypothetically intended to target so-called high-value targets in the St. Petersburg area.” Moreover, “The French will simulate the use of nuclear warheads during the exercise. Rafale B aircraft are capable of flying from France to the Budapest-Kaliningrad line and practicing attacks on targets in Russia and Belarus.”
This was agreed upon during French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Gdansk where they told the media that they discussed nuclear cooperation. Gdansk is Tusk’s hometown but it’s also ominously the place where World War II broke out. France’s planned nuclear drills might come as a shock to casual observers, but Macron has been talking about this since last March, which in turn prompted Tusk to do the same. Here are some background briefings:
* 14 March 2025: “France’s Next Quarterly Nuclear Drills Might Become Prestige-Building Exercises With Poland”
* 15 March 2025: “Poland’s Talk About Obtaining Nukes Is Likely A Misguided Negotiation Tactic With The US”
* 24 September 2025: “The US Is Expected To Tacitly Back Poland’s Nuclear Weapons Plans”
* 16 February 2026: “Trump 2.0 Must Urgently Declare Its Position Towards Poland’s Nuclear Weapons Plans”
* 28 March 2026: “Interpreting The US’ Informal Opposition To Poland’s Nuclear Weapons Plans”
In short, France is once again in a “friendly competition” with Germany for leadership of Europe, to which end the eastward extension of its nuclear umbrella is envisaged giving it a strategic edge. Likewise, Poland envisages leading Central & Eastern Europe, but growing concerns about the US’ reliability led to it flirting with nukes. Those two realized that their interests are best served through the nuclear partnership that was just agreed to, which also shifts the burden for containing Russia away from the US.
The trigger for tangibly setting these plans into motion was Trump’s rejection of Putin’s proposal to extend the New START for another year, thus dismantling their last arms control pact. The risk of a global nuclear arms race spiked, and coupled with the US’ renewed focus on West Asia and Trump’s hints that he’ll hang NATO out to dry in a war with Russia for not helping him open Hormuz, France and Poland decided to take the plunge. The European security architecture is now indelibly altered.
France thus became Russia’s top adversary in Europe since any crisis with the Baltic States, such as if Russia intercepts Ukrainian drones over their airspace, could now lead to a French-Russian crisis with nuclear stakes if Poland rushes to their rescue and Paris extends its nuclear umbrella further eastward to cover its ally. Through these means, Ukraine can now spark a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis at any time, but it might hold off till all players have time to practice and perfect this escalation sequence.
