The surprise Russian-US diesel deal in early October represented the first bilateral agreement between them since 2022 and importantly didn’t include any terms related to Ukraine either. This in turn convinced observers, both adversarial and friendly alike, that Trump is more serious than ever about cutting deals with Putin over one year since their Anchorage Summit sparked high hopes that later led to deep disappointment. His change of heart is arguably attributable to the following five reasons:
———-
1. The 2023 Counteroffensive’s Spiritual Successor Was A Failure
Zelensky’s 40-day influence campaign, wherein he aimed to coerce Putin into a ceasefire without preconditions through systematic strikes against Russian infrastructure, represented the spiritual successor of 2023’s counteroffensive. It similarly failed. Even worse, it provoked Putin to “escalate to de-escalate” in kind, which could bring Ukraine to its knees by wintertime. Zelensky promised to bring Putin to his knees instead, and since he didn’t deliver, Trump once again considers him to be a conman.
2. Trump Feels Challenged To Assert Himself As The Alpha
Zelensky’s explicit defiance of Trump’s demands not to target Russian refineries, which he made with the intent of stabilizing the global energy market after the Third Gulf War disrupted it, is an unprecedented challenge to his authority. Trump also reportedly equates this to meddling in the midterms. If Trump ignored it, then not only would he humiliate himself personally, but he’d also undermine the global standing of his office. He therefore has to teach him an unforgettable lesson in order to “save face”.
3. The Global Energy Crisis Makes Everything All The More Urgent
The soaring cost of living sparked by the global energy crisis represents the greatest threat to Republican control of the White House in 2028. In order to preserve his domestic legacy, Trump must therefore bring prices down for consumers before then, which necessitates lowering the cost of fuel. The most reliable way to deter continued Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries, which are responsible for spiking prices, is to cut a deal with Putin that includes US stakes in them as a security guarantee for Russia.
4. The Post-Midterm Reality Is Another Motivating Factor
The likely loss of at least one chamber of Congress to the Democrats next month is expected to motivate Trump to speed up his efforts to reshape the world order so as to create a fait accompli that outlasts his administration as his global legacy even if the Democrats retake the White House in 2028. He envisages a resource-centric strategic partnership with Russia that irreversibly shifts the balance of the Sino-US systemic rivalry in the US’ favor. He only has two years left to clinch it and knows that it’s now or never.
5. China’s Superpower Trajectory Will Soon Become Irreversible
Likewise, it’s also now or never for the US to derail China’s superpower trajectory by leveraging the aforesaid partnership with Russia to this end otherwise it’ll soon become irreversible, ergo the urgency in clinching deals with Russia that ipso facto deny China access to US-invested resource deposits. “China Doesn’t Want Anyone To Win In Ukraine” since perpetuating the conflict, especially through drone sales to Ukraine, further delays the US’ “Pivot to Asia”. That’s all the more reason for Trump to end it ASAP.
———-
The growing economic costs of Russia’s arms race with Europe, the likelihood of foreign-orchestrated domestic unrest falsely justified by them, and the overall loss of other strategic opportunities predispose Putin to cut deals with Trump instead of continuing to pursue his maximum goals in Ukraine. In exchange for a US-brokered energy deal between Russia, Ukraine, and the EU, the large-scale withdrawal of US forces from Europe, and new arms control talks, Putin might agree to major compromises on Ukraine.
