The visit of Russia’s foreign spy chief to Kabul could presage Russia arming the Taliban against ISIS-K, the scenario of which has sparked panic among the Pakistani commentariat, especially anonymous Pakistani accounts on social media (“trolls”). There’s now a coordinated disinfo campaign underway between them and “NAFO” to respectively smear the Taliban and Russia as having sold out to their former foes. The reality is that this would meet both of their interests. Here are five reasons why Russia should do it:
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1. The Taliban Prevents ISIS-K’s Expansion Into Central Asia
ISIS-K has made no secret of its plans to expand into Central Asia from Afghanistan, which would destabilize Russia’s southern periphery with all the unconventional security consequences that would follow, ergo Russia’s interest in arming the Taliban so that it can prevent this dark scenario. For whatever one may think about the Taliban’s socio-political system, it has absolutely zero desire to export this model to Central Asia, so Russia’s regional allies wouldn’t be threatened by it arming the group.
2. Pakistan Has Already Been Briefed About Russia’s Policy
Pakistan is at war with the Taliban and accuses it of allying with Islamabad-designated terrorists, so it wouldn’t approve of Russia arming the Taliban, but Pakistan has already been briefed about Russia’s belief that the Taliban is the most effective force for preventing ISIS-K’s expansion into Central Asia. Therefore, Pakistan shouldn’t overreact if Russia arms the Taliban against ISIS-K by arming Ukraine, which would make Russia suspect that Pakistan was looking for a pretext for a preplanned provocation.
3. Afghanistan’s Overall Stability Is In Russia’s Interests
While Russia wouldn’t want the Taliban to use any newly received arms against Pakistan, Moscow probably wouldn’t object to them being used against armed groups like the “National Resistance Front” (NRF), which are suspected of being backed by Pakistan as part of its Hybrid War on Afghanistan. This assessment is informed by Russia’s Deputy Secretary of its Security Council recently declaring that “a prosperous, peaceful, and independent Afghanistan is in the interests of all countries in the region.”
4. Security Is The Prerequisite For Mutual Economic Benefits
Without security, the majority of the mutual economic benefits that Russia and Afghanistan are poised to reap from their strategic partnership will remain out of reach, which further contextualizes why Russia might arm the Taliban so that it can vanquish ISIS-K, the NRF, and other threats that impede this. In furtherance of this goal, Russia could also train the Taliban on counter-terrorism, drone warfare, and special forces operations, all of which could then be used against the aforesaid groups.
5. Afghanistan’s Socio-Political Affairs Aren’t Russia’s Business
Russia’s respect of its partners’ sovereignty naturally extends to Afghanistan’s socio-political affairs, which aren’t its business, though it might still discreetly convey some concerns about various elements thereof that could have security-related implications if left unaddressed or not improved. This doesn’t mean, however, that Russia will make security and economic cooperation dependent on socio-political reforms. Russia respects Afghanistan’s right to manage its society and politics however it so chooses.
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The fact that Russia arming the Taliban is now a plausible scenario speaks to each side’s pragmatism in moving beyond their difficult Soviet-era past in pursuit of mutual interests. The rapid rapprochement between these former foes also sets a positive example for others across the world. If the Russian-Afghan Strategic Partnership succeeds in bringing peace and prosperity to all Afghans, then it would be an historic achievement, and many other states might then recognize the Taliban’s restored leadership.
