Janes Information Service set the Asian media ablaze on Monday after citing unnamed Indonesian sources to claim that Russia requested an airbase on the island of Biak near New Guinea. The Australian Defense Minister spoke to his Indonesian counterpart the next day, however, who told him that this report is “simply not true.” Keen observers would have already known even before this that Janes’ report about Russia wanting an airbase in Indonesia likely wasn’t true for the following five reasons:
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1. Indonesia’s New President Is Passionately Pro-American
New Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, who was inaugurated last October after his election in February 2024 and served as Defense Minister from 2019 till then, made headlines for his phone call with Trump shortly after the latter’s electoral victory. He posted a video of their brief exchange where he offered to fly to congratulate him personally and even boasted about how “All my training is American”. This isn’t the behavior of someone who’s willing to get on the US’ bad side by hosting Russian warplanes.
2. But His Country Still Practices A Balanced Foreign Policy
Prabowo’s pro-Americanism isn’t obnoxiously expressed in his country’s foreign policy, however, since Indonesia still carefully multi-aligns between major powers like the US, China, and Russia, the last with whom relations have intensified over the past year as documented here in late January. Giving a military base to any of those three would upset the aforementioned geopolitical balancing act and thus isn’t realistically in the cards no matter what terms any of them might offer.
3. Neither Russia Nor Indonesia Would Tangibly Benefit
None of those in the media who lend credence to this scandalous report can cogently explain what tangible benefit Russia or Indonesia would obtain from this base arrangement. Russian warplanes aren’t going to protect Indonesia’s maritime claims from Chinese coast guard incursions nor would Indonesia allow Russia to bomb regional American bases, including its rotational Marine one in Australia’s Darwin, from its territory. Such a deal would thus be all symbolism but no substance.
4. And It Would Actually Be Counterproductive To Both
To explain, Indonesia’s ties Australia and the US would worsen while the US’ warmongering faction could try to manipulate Trump into thinking that Russia is exploiting their talks on Ukraine to buy time for helping China thwart the US’ “Pivot (back) to Asia”, which could complicate or even end their talks. Therefore, not only would neither of them tangibly benefit, but the political fantasy of a Russian airbase in Indonesia could even be strategically disadvantageous if it were to ever come to pass.
5. Is The Indonesian Deep State Trying To Discredit Prabowo?
And finally, it shouldn’t be forgotten that former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan was considered to be the candidate who’d subordinate Indonesia to America, which readers can learn more about from the preceding hyperlinked analyses. This is relevant to remember since it can’t be ruled out that like-minded individuals in his country’s deep state (permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies) duped Janes into publishing this scandalous report so as to discredit Prabowo’s pragmatic balancing act.
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Provided that Janes didn’t fabricate their report, which isn’t likely since they’re highly respected, then they might have been duped as was explained. Another possibility is that their sources misreported, whether deliberately or not, Indonesia’s plans to base Russian-purchased warplanes like the Su-35 on Biak and/or for Russia to train their pilots there if a deal is made. In any case, a Russian airbase in Indonesia is unlikely for the reasons that were listed, particularly that neither would benefit from it.
