The Suwalki Corridor is once again at the center of a speculative Russian invasion plan after Royal United Services Institute expert Ed Arnold fearmongered about this to German media. There’s nothing new about what he said since it’s been talked about for years and especially over the last three since the start of the special operation, but it’s a timely occasion to share five arguments debunking this claim. Here’s why Russia won’t attack Poland and/or Lithuania as part of a plot to connect Kaliningrad with Belarus:
———-
1. The Rzeszow Precedent Dispels Western Propaganda
Sensational Western claims about Putin being some monster, madman, or mastermind hellbent on conquering Europe are discredited by him declining to attack NATO’s military logistics hub in Poland’s Rzeszow through which 90% of the equipment that’s been given to Ukraine to kill Russians has passed. The precedent of him not risking World War III to stop the flow of Western arms into an active conflict zone in which Russians are being killed daily dispels speculation that he’ll risk it during times of peace.
2. There’s No Plausible Pretext For Taking Over That Corridor
Likewise, the Suwalki Corridor is inhabited by Poles and Lithuanians, not Russians or Belarusians who might hypothetically be oppressed and whose plight could thus serve as the pretext for an invasion. There’s accordingly no reason whatsoever for Putin to risk World War III over this sliver of territory that’s never historically been inhabited by Russians or their ethnic Belarusian kin at any significant level. Without even a semi-plausible ethno-territorial pretext, any invasion would be seen as naked aggression.
3. Any Attempt To Do So Might Also Be Very Difficult
Assuming for argument’s sake that he invades, then it likely wouldn’t be a walk in the park due to how much Poland and Lithuania are militarizing their borders. Poland also has NATO’s third-largest army and American troops are permanently deployed there too, while German ones are permanently deployed in Lithuania, thus serving as the tripwire for them directly intervening and expanding the conflict. These factors would greatly raise the risk of World War III, which Putin has done his best to avoid, breaking out.
4. Russia Would Ruin Its Hoped-For Strategic Ties With The US
Russia envisages entering into a strategic partnership with the US for shaping the post-conflict era, one which would be built upon a series of strategic resource deals, but these grand plans would be ruined if it invades NATO’s Suwalki Corridor. It therefore wouldn’t make sense for Russia to throw all that away for nothing nor for the US not to pressure its NATO partners into removing whatever credible threats they might pose for provoking a Russian invasion that would ruin this mutually beneficial arrangement.
5. The “Rogue NATO” Scenario Is Highly Unlikely
The only scenario in which Russia would risk World War III or at the very least ruin its hoped-for strategic ties with the US by invading the Suwalki Corridor is if NATO’s European members went rogue, perhaps with the UK’s encouragement, and blockaded Kaliningrad in defiance of US pressure not to. That’s highly unlikely though they wouldn’t be able to rely on the US’ military support nor its nuclear brinksmanship, which they’d require to have a fighting chance of surviving, thus making this a suicidal scenario for them.
———-
Considering the five points above, Arnold and his ilk’s speculation about a Russian invasion of the Suwalki Corridor is exposed as baseless fearmongering aimed at rallying Europe against Russia in the post-conflict era, which is meant to precondition the public into accepting higher defense spending. It’s therefore nothing but a recurring information warfare operation waged by the elites against their people, but one that’s been compellingly debunked and therefore discredits those who still peddle it.
