Western media is in a tizzy after Russia’s weekend drone strike against a railway station in the town of Yagodin on Ukraine’s border with Poland. According to CNN, “Former US CIA director David Petraeus was at a Ukrainian train station at the very moment a Russian drone struck a passenger train on Sunday, shortly after a diplomatic train carrying former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other foreign dignitaries had passed through.” This misleadingly framed the strike as an attempted assassination.
It’s highly unlikely that risk-averse Putin would escalate against NATO by trying to kill two former top officials from the bloc, especially when he won’t even authorize such attempts against incumbent Ukrainian officials, most notably Zelensky. While Putin was forced by Zelensky’s failed 40-day influence operation into “escalating to de-escalate” with Ukraine, it’s thus far only been done mildly, with strikes against infrastructure like gas stations, ports, and powerplants as opposed to targeting major figures.
With these observations in mind, it was arguably the case that Russia’s drone strike against Yagodin’s railway station wasn’t an attempted assassination against those two former top officials from the Anglo-American core of NATO, but a message to their countries and a signal of what might be to come. Regarding the message, it was that visiting dignitaries – both former and incumbent – shouldn’t take for granted that they can continue safely traveling to Ukraine, which segues into the signal that Russia sent.
This wasn’t the first time that Russia targeted railway infrastructure in Ukraine nor any target on its border with Poland, but it’s the first time that Russia targeted a railway station on the border. This route is one of several via which 90% of NATO’s military-technical exports enter Ukraine. Russia’s supporters have wondered why Putin hadn’t authorized such strikes sooner, which might be due to his risk aversion, previously limited munitions, and/or Ukraine’s prior air defenses (that are now almost depleted).
In any case, it certainly wasn’t a coincidence that he authorized this latest strike at a railway station where Petraeus was waiting shortly after Johnson passed through, so it surely seems like he’s signaling that Russia might begin targeting Ukrainian transport infrastructure at scale. This could go beyond railway stations to include highways and bridges across the Dnieper. The purpose would be to impede NATO’s military logistics to Ukraine in parallel with then impeding the transit of arms to the front.
Sunday’s strike shows that Russia can now carry out precision strikes anywhere in Ukraine at any time of its choosing. So long as Russia has enough munitions, and it doesn’t appear to have any shortage of drones nowadays at least, then it could be sustained indefinitely for coercing significant unilateral concessions from Ukraine by the expected resumption of trilateral talks with the US next month. Putin’s escalation might also be aimed at preempting Zelensky’s threatened closure of Russian airspace.
The takeaway is that the military-strategic dynamics are once again trending in Russia’s favor after some uncertainty over the summer caused by Trump’s decision to “escalate to de-escalate” through a Ukrainian-fronted “war of attrition” against Russia. If Ukraine doesn’t cut a (potentially US-mediated) deal with Russia soon, then this winter might be its most difficult thus far, after which it might finally be forced to capitulate to Russia unless NATO risks World War III by directly intervening to prevent that.
