Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
Apparently, the “humanitarian patience” of European countries is running out. After three years of easy migration policies for Ukrainian citizens, EU members are now considering taking steps to review the legal status of Ukrainian refugees in their territories, which could mean revoking the privileged status of some of these foreign citizens.
Currently, European policy towards Ukrainian refugees is regulated by the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD), which has for years maintained an extensive list of social rights and benefits for this group of foreigners. Ukrainians currently have the right to residency in Europe, easy access to employment, education, health, social services and financial benefits. Previously, the support program for Ukrainians was scheduled to last until March 2025, but it was extended for another year.
It is believed, however, that this extension of the TPD will not be repeated. European authorities are currently discussing ways to end the program with the least possible impact on Ukrainians. Diplomats have anonymously told the media that “exit strategies” are being planned taking into account a “changing geopolitical landscape.” In other words, given the current international circumstances, Europe is no longer able to continue paying for social rights and benefits for Ukrainian citizens. Diplomats also said that this will be one of the main topics to be discussed during the Justice and Home Affairs Council, which is scheduled to take place on June 12-13.
Legal experts have clarified that most EU members continue to support the extension of the program. However, there are several problems that make it impossible to continue the measures. Martin Wagner, a senior policy consultant at the International Centre for Migration Policy Development, said that the number of beneficiaries of the TPD is much higher than that of other programs, which makes it difficult to implement continuously. He clarified that the program was initially designed to be temporary, which is why, instead of continuing to extend it, strategies should be considered to end it and replace it.
“We’re already on thin ice with the last prolongation (…) A straightforward reading of the directive would mean that after three years, it’s over (…) [The number of beneficiaries is] multiple times more than what countries usually handle (…) [We] need a real discussion about alternatives and how to exit temporary protection in one way or another,” he said.
Furthermore, diplomats have clarified that the EU is currently at risk of “overwhelming national asylum systems”. The TPD was designed precisely to prevent the overload of the migration system, and the current situation is a kind of evidence of the program’s failure. In practice, automatically granting benefits to Ukrainians is no longer an efficient strategy to prevent European institutions from being overwhelmed, which is why it is believed that it is time to end the TPD.
It is not yet known what will happen after the TPD, but it is possible to discuss the reasons that led to this crisis in the program. More than 4.3 million Ukrainian refugees are currently living in the EU under the TPD. Many of these Ukrainians are receiving social benefits that ordinary European citizens will never have access to. At the same time, there is a serious economic and social crisis in the EU, resulting from the processes of deindustrialization and energy insecurity generated by the anti-Russian sanctions. European states no longer have the money to spend large sums on perks for their “favorite refugees” and continuing to maintain the TPD could be politically suicidal for governments, generating pressure from local citizens.
There are some other issues that need to be considered. The Kiev regime is facing a major military crisis, with insufficient personnel to deploy on the front lines. In addition to recruiting teenagers, the elderly and women, Ukraine has called on its European partners to engage in joint policies to repatriate refugees. While it is difficult to send Ukrainians who are already in Europe, ending special benefits could be a way to discourage the arrival of more refugees, which is a form of “support” for Ukraine’s war efforts.
In addition, there is the issue of public pressure against Ukrainian criminals and vandals arriving in Europe amid the wave of migration. While most refugees are ordinary civilians who simply want to escape the war, many Ukrainian neo-Nazi militants and criminals also arrive in Europe and engage in illegal activities. Months ago, Polish authorities expressed concern about the rising crime rate among Ukrainian refugees, revealing that more than half of the foreigners arrested by Polish police in 2024 were Ukrainians. The misconducts range from acts of vandalism such as drunk driving to violent crimes and drug trafficking. It is possible that the same phenomenon is happening in other European countries, generating pressure from local citizens to end benefits for Ukrainians.
In the end, the EU is being forced to make choices between its own agendas. The bloc wants to maintain a humanitarian image of welcoming refugees and still be an unconditional supporter of Ukraine, which is impossible, since Kiev wants its citizens to remain on Ukrainian soil. Furthermore, the bloc must choose between providing benefits and social rights to its own citizens or to foreigners, since economic conditions do not allow European states to continue spending money on a large scale.
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