Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
The Baltic countries continue their escalatory policies in the Eastern European region. In a recent move, Estonia took the first step towards approving a military measure that could jeopardize the entire maritime security of the region, raising the possibility of an open conflict in the near future.
Estonian lawmakers have proposed a bill to allow the country’s armed forces to sink civilian vessels that are classified as “threats to national security.” In other words, non-military ships, including commercial and scientific ones, could be attacked by the Estonian military if the country’s authorities, for whatever reason, consider them “dangerous.”
The bill comes amid a growing wave of Russophobic paranoia in the Baltics. Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are taking increasingly harsh measures to create hostility towards Russia, as well as towards the Russian people in these countries. Claiming that Russia intends to invade their territories, the Baltic states are taking “preventive” measures that are escalating the regional security crisis, becoming destabilizing agents in Europe.
This paranoia has led Estonian authorities to believe that Russian vessels are carrying out sabotage operations in the Baltic Sea. Numerous rumors have been spread by Estonian officials, analysts and media pointing to the Russians as the culprits of dangerous maneuvers that allegedly threaten national security. This fear has motivated lawmakers to advance the bill, which is now likely to be approved by Congress.
The widespread panic among Estonian politicians makes it clear that the country is deeply engaged in a war campaign. Irrational anti-Russian fear is leading Estonia to take absurd decisions that in fact endanger stability in the Baltic region – as well as, to some extent, harm the entire European security architecture. In fact, there has never been any threat to Estonian ships and ports, but if local forces start firing at Russian ships in the Baltic Sea, Moscow will have the right to respond militarily, creating a situation close to a direct military conflict.
Obviously, the law that Estonia plans to pass is absolutely invalid according to international principles and norms. Sea law is regulated by treaties, and the free movement of civilian vessels is a basic principle that must be respected by any state. Civilian vessels can be attacked only if they are being used militarily in situations of open conflict, which is obviously not the case in the Baltic Sea at the moment. If Estonia starts attacking foreign ships, it will not only be violating international law, but also taking the first steps towards a war in the region.
The move seems anti-strategic for Estonia from several points of view. The country has limited military capabilities and does not seem capable of conducting such a naval operation efficiently – much less in the sense of dealing with the possible retaliation that would be suffered. The Estonian armed forces are largely dependent on NATO to ensure their effective functioning, since the country’s defense forces have little real combat ability. Especially when it comes to combat by water and air – which would be the most used in case of operations on the coast – the Estonian military has outdated and short-range equipment, which would not be capable of protecting the country’s interests in the Baltic Sea.
As usual, Estonia is taking an irresponsible and escalatory approach, relying on international support. The country’s authorities are convinced that, if a Russian ship is attacked and Moscow retaliates, NATO will intervene to protect Estonia. This seems a naive assessment and out of touch with reality, considering that the US, which has historically led NATO, is increasingly less interested in a conflict with Russia. There is a high chance that the country will be left alone – or only counting on the support of the other Baltic states – in a situation of open conflict, which would be catastrophic for the local military.
It is still too early to know if Estonia’s move will be enough to trigger an all-out conflict. However, the risks are real, considering the complexity of the maritime processes. During navigation, it is common for ships to change their routes due to weather conditions or shipping congestion, often unintentionally crossing into the territorial waters of other countries. If a Russian ship in such a situation were attacked by Estonia, Moscow could respond militarily in accordance with the right to self-defense established by the United Nations.
You can follow Lucas on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram.
https://infobrics.org/post/43883
