Judd Legum
The Trump administration’s Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday. Prior to her testimony, she submitted a written version of her opening statement. It contained the following passage about Iran:
As a result of Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran’s uranium enrichment program was completely destroyed. Since then, there have been no attempts to rebuild its enrichment capabilities. The entrances to the bombed underground facilities have been buried and sealed with cement.
In other words, after the Trump administration’s bombing campaign last June, Iran no longer had the capability to enrich uranium. Since then, the Iranian regime has made no effort to restore this capability. Without the capability to enrich uranium, Iran cannot produce a nuclear weapon. Gabbard’s statement was consistent with the assessments of external experts.
Remarkably, when Gabbard appeared in person, she read most of her opening statement, but omitted the aforementioned section on Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities. When questioned by Senator Mark Warner (Democrat, Virginia), Gabbard explained that she had left out that part because she “realized that time was running out.”
Gabbard thus omitted a key conclusion of the US intelligence agencies, which undermines one of the main justifications for the war that President Trump had repeatedly put forward.
Trump and his representatives repeatedly justified the war against Iran by claiming that Iran would have possessed multiple nuclear weapons within a few weeks had it not been for the decision to intervene militarily. According to Trump’s top intelligence chief, these claims were false.
Here are the key statements that should support this false representation:
“They are probably only a week away from having material for bomb production on an industrial scale, and that is really dangerous.” — Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, February 22
“If we hadn’t struck within two weeks, they would have had a nuclear weapon. When crazy people have nuclear weapons, bad things happen.” — Trump, March 4
“And it had to be done. They were very close to having a nuclear weapon.” — Trump, March 7
“They could have had a nuclear weapon within 2 to 4 weeks.” — Trump, March 9
“If we hadn’t done that, you would have had a nuclear war that would have escalated into World War III.” — Trump, March 16
“We’re making very, very good progress in Iran, we’re beating them hard. And that’s what we have to do. We can’t allow them to have a nuclear weapon. They were two weeks away—in my opinion, two weeks away—from having a nuclear weapon.” — Trump, March 17
At the start of the war against Iran, on March 1, the White House issued a statement describing the war as a measure “to eliminate the immediate nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime”.
During the hearing, Senator Jon Ossoff (Democrat, Georgia) pressed Gabbard, asking whether the intelligence agencies had truly assessed the “nuclear threat” from Iran as “imminent,” as the White House claimed. Gabbard repeatedly evaded the question.
Regarding the issue of immediacy, Gabbard said, “The president has to make that decision.” That’s wrong. It’s the job of the intelligence agencies to assess threats, including their severity and immediacy. It’s the job of the president and Congress to decide how to respond to those assessments.
Apparently, the intelligence agencies did not consider the nuclear threat from Iran to be imminent, as they concluded that Iran did not possess nuclear weapons and was not taking the necessary steps to develop them. Joe Kent, who was appointed by Trump to head the National Counterterrorism Center and reported to Gabbard, resigned on Tuesday. In his resignation letter, Kent stated that “Iran did not pose an imminent threat to our country.”
Another of Gabbard’s tactics was to blame the bombings last June for having curbed Iran’s nuclear ambitions. However, even before these attacks, Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. As early as March 2025, Gabbard stated that intelligence agencies continued to assume “that Iran is not developing a nuclear weapon and that Supreme Leader Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”
Shortly before Trump ordered the bombing of Iran in June 2025, he was questioned about Gabbard’s statement, which contradicted his claims at the time.
“She’s wrong. My intelligence agencies are wrong,” Trump said tersely.
